2025 Aki banzuke prediction: Aonishiki breaks into san'yaku, Shishi survives!

Predicting the 2025 aki basho banzuke ahead of Grand Sumo's September tournament.

Before the Nagoya basho I had a go at predicting the banzuke (link). I did alright, but I actually had a lot of fun breaking down the banzuke and trying to figure out where everyone would go. So I’ve done it again, for the forthcoming aki basho.

This is a premium post, but I always try to be very generous with the paywall. If you’re a free subscriber you’ll be able to see my guesses at the top and the bottom of the banzuke. Paid subscribers will get to see the middle, too.

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Bonus gif for this predictions post is our last winner, Kotoshoho — who is due for a big promotion thanks to that surprising yusho.

“Where you putting me, bro?”

Before I get into my prediction, here’s a brief overview of how the banzuke is usually constructed.

The general rule is that wrestlers move up and down based on their net wins or losses from the past basho. That means that a wrestler who went 8-7 has a net score of +1. That means they are probably going to move up one space. However, we can’t assume that’s the case for everyone. Context matters. And, also, sometimes you just have to stick guys somewhere that more or less makes sense.

For reference, here’s the real Nagoya banzuke. I’ve added columns here for the win-loss records from the basho, as well as the net wins.

Now, onto my predictions…

Yokozuna, Ōzeki and San’yaku

This is always the easiest part of the banzuke to predict. That’s because most of these ranks are so sticky. The JSA can not demote the yokozuna and the ōzeki keep their ranking unless they have two losing records in a row.

For the aki basho, our yokozuna ranks will continue to be filled by Ōnosato and Hōshōryū. However, their positions will be flipped from the Nagoya banzuke. Ōnosato will now take the premier spot as yokozuna 1 east. He gets that because he had a better record (11-4) last time out than Hōshōryū (1-4-10). Hōshōryū is now the yokozuna-ozeki, thus satisfying the requirement that there are two ōzeki on every banzuke. The second ōzeki is, of course, Kotozakura — who went 8-7 in July. Kotozakura will retain his spot at ozeki 1 east.

The sekiwake ranks have some changes. Daieishō, who was absent in Nagoya, will lose his spot and fall way down the rankings. Wakatakakage, who finished 10-5, moves up to take his place. Kirishima, who had a mediocre 8-7, will stay where he’s at.

Wakatakakage goes into September with a very good shot at making ozeki so long as he can get double digit wins.

The komusubi ranks are pretty easy to predict. Takayasu will move up to komusubi 1 as reward for his stellar tournament from komusubi 2. I doubt they will open up a sekiwake spot for him, despite how well he did in the last tournament. Taking his old spot should be Aonishiki, who scored his third 11-4 record in a row in July. That would be a five rank promotion up from M4, giving him his first ever promotion to the san’yaku.

Here’s how that all looks.

Promotions and Relegations

The bottom of the banzuke is much tougher to figure out than the top.

My predicted relegations are M8 Endō (0-0-15), M9 Chiyoshōma (1-14), M15 Hidenoumi (2-11-2), M16 Kayo (4-11) and M17 Kotoeihō (6-9). All of them have enough net losses to bounce them out of the makuuchi.

I’m predicting Shishi stays up, by the skin of his teeth. He went 7-8 from M17, but I think we’ll see an M18 spot opened for him. I thinking this way because I don’t think there are enough candidates for promotion from jūryō this time around to justify him losing his place. And I think Shishi had a good tournament despite his record. He finished strong, beating his last three opponents (including the juryo call-up Tamashōhō and the higher ranked Tokihayate and Asakōryū).

My predicted promoted rikishi are Nishikigi and Ryuden, who both went 8-7 from the J1 rank. It’s pretty obvious that they will come up. Shōnannoumi and Tomokaze should be coming up, too. They went 10-5 and 9-6 from the J2 ranks. And I think Oshoumi will come up, despite going just 8-7 from J3. I have him coming up because there’s a space for him, due to those five wrestlers who I think have to go down.

My odd men out from jūryō are Hitoshi and Daiseizan. They both went 10-5 from J6. I don’t think that’s enough, from that rank, to jump up to makuuchi and replace Shishi.

Mita, who won jūryō, last time out with an 11-4 record was ranked J11 in July. I think him, Hitoshi and Daieseizan will move up to J1/2 and be primed for a shot at promotion after September.

Guys I have falling into the danger zone for September include Takerufuji and stablemates Tobizaru and Daieishō. I have them all suffering big demotions due to injuries. If either of them is still hurt going into September then there is a good chance they’ll be sent down after aki. There is an argument for demoting Tobizaru all the way to jūryō, but I think he’ll be spared.

Here’s my mock makuuchi basement.

Filling out the middle

This is the hardest part to figure out. There are lots of spaces between the cellar and the san’yaku and it’s hard to make everyone fit with just the net-win/loss consideration.

For the jōi (places M1-4) in September, I’ve gone with Tamawashi, Abi, Gōnoyama, Atamifuji, Hakuōhō, Ōhō, Hiradoumi and Wakamotoharu.

All but…