2025 aki basho predictions!

Here's my projected win totals for every wrestler competing in the top division at the autumn tournament.

Sep 13, 2025

The autumn tournament starts this weekend!

I can’t wait for this one. Both yokozuna seem healthy, so we might finally get them facing off with each other at the end of the basho. We have Wakatakakage looking to complete his ōzeki run, Aonishiki debuting in the san’yaku and a very strong jōi with youngsters looking to breakthrough and get that first yushō.

Like I did before Nagoya, I’m going to put my Nostradamus hat on (instead of my very cool Sumo Stomp! hat - get yours in the merch store, today!) and try to predict who is going to be successful in this tournament. Specifically, I’m going to list out what I think the win totals will be for every top division rikishi.

Last time out, I did OK. I do deserve a little leeway on that, though, since that tournament went in very unexpected — and also very entertaining — directions.

I’m formatting this one a little differently this time, hopefully to make it easier on the eyes.

Bonus gif today is two men who have a lot of hungry young wrestlers nipping at their heels.

12 wins

Y1e Ōnosato

I think this is going to be a closely contested basho with lots of top wrestlers taking wins off of each other. I think the san’yaku and jōi are especially strong in this tournament and that the guys ranked higher than that might fail to rack up gaudy records. Because of this, I think 12 wins could be enough to win the tournament.

After coming off an underwhelming debut yokozuna tournament, I think Ōnosato will be back to his best here and he’ll be the one who manages to survive the most scares against this very competitive san’yaku and jōi.

I predict his three losses go to Hōshōryū, Wakatakakage and Ōhō.

11 wins

S1e Wakatakakage
M10e Daieishō

I believe Wakatakakage is going to complete his ōzeki run this month. He has been very consistent this year and I think he has the maturity and experience to seize this opportunity, instead of being swallowed up by the pressure it brings with it.

If Daieishō lasts the entire tournament, he should have a pretty easy first week on the dohyo. He hasn’t been ranked this low for an age and in those first few days he’ll get names like Midorifuji, Ura, Fujinokawa and Churanoumi. I think he’ll be an early leader of the tournament and then drop back a little as we get down the stretch.

10 wins

Y1wYO Hōshōryū
M2e Hakuōhō
M3e Atamifuji

I’m really hoping I’m right with this Hōshōryū prediction. Getting a full tournament under his belt with double-digit wins would be great for him right now. If this happens, it likely means he coughs up more kinboshi, but I’m hoping this can be a nice platform for him to build upon as he eyes November and next year as places he can deliver his best yokozuna sumō.

Hakuōhō and Atamifuji performed very well in the last tournament and I think they are steadily improving with each basho. I think either of them could be a surprise contender for the cup here, but realistically, I see them merely coming out on top in those inner-jōi battles and maybe being good candidates for taking kinboshi or perhaps denting the records of the ōzeki and sekiwake.

9 wins

K1e Takayasu
K1w Aonishiki
M6e Ōnokatsu
M6w Kusano
M15w Shōnannoumi
M18e Shishi

I have Aonishiki scoring his career worst top division record here. I don’t think he’s going to struggle at komusubi, I just think we’ll see him come down to earth a little. There are no surprises left when it comes to Aonishiki and I’m expecting guys like Kotozakura, Hōshōryū, Kirishima and Wakatakakage to have made adjustments when it comes to planning for him. If Aonishiki sails through those bouts (like he mostly did in previous meetings), then we’re looking at a potential future yokozuna. Even he struggles a little, at 21, that could still be in his future. I just think, for this first san’yaku appearance, he’ll look good, but not as spectacular as he has from lower rankings.

I think Kusano is going to have a solid sophomore top division campaign, too. He feels like a ready made jōi/san’yaku guy already and I don’t think he’ll have that hard a time with this middle section of the banzuke.

I have Shōnannoumi and Shishi as my two surprise performers. Shōnannoumi has done well from this ranking before and we’ve seen a lot of guys do well when they get back to makuuchi, treating that jūryō demotion as a slap on the wrist/kick in the pants. Shishi is on notice and needs to perform after being spared a demotion. I think he could do well against the aging and possibly banged up veterans down in the banzuke cellar this month.

8 wins

O1e Kotozakura
S1w Kirishima
M1e Abi
M2e Ōhō
M3w Gōnoyama
M5e Kotoshōhō
M8w kantō
M13e Meisei
M13w Tokihayate
M14w Asakōryū
M15e Tobizaru

I have a long list of guys who I think will get the bare minimum kachi-koshi this month. This is me, again, believing that we’ll have a very close tournament with few wrestlers getting dramatic winning or losing records.

In this group I have last tournament winner Kotoshōhō. I think his improbable yushō had a lot to do with momentum. He really grew into the role of title challenger and looked like a world beater once he could see the finish line. It’s going to be harder for him to get a good start in this tournament, with names like Ōnokatsu, Kusano and Ichiyamamoto likely to meet him in the first few days.

I also have Kotozakura and Kirishima getting 8-7 records, as they did in the previous tournament. I think these two are too good to get replaced at this point, but not good enough (due to their health) to push beyond where they are.

7 wins

M1e Tamawashi
M4e Hiradoumi
M5w Ichiyamamoto
M7w Ōshōma
M10w Churanoumi
M11w Roga
M16w Nishikigi
M17e Ryūden
M17w Hitoshi

I have Tamawashi getting the make-koshi despite his excellent Nagoya. I may regret this, but the old man can’t win at every tournament. I think he might strike out against the upper-rankers this time around and also lose a few to the younger guys in the jōi.

I have Hiradoumi and Ichiyamamoto just falling short, too. Historically, they’ve been pretty inconsistent at these rankings.

I think Nishikigi and Ryūden will continue to struggle to keep up in makuuchi. Both came up from jūryō with just 8-7 records. Hitoshi isn’t a young and hot prospect. He’s 28 and I think this first makuuchi experience will be a tough one for him.

6 wins

M4w Wakamotoharu
M7e Takanoshō
M9e Midorifuji
M11e Shōdai
M16e Tomokaze

I think we’re seeing the decline of Wakamotoharu right now. He seems to be really struggling to keep up and compete with the young rising core of wrestlers who fight his style. He went 6-9 at M1 in the last tournament and he’ll be facing similar opposition this time around.

The others in this group are mostly vets who have shown that their ceilings, at this point in their careers, are around where they are ranked now.

5 wins

M8e Ura
M9w Fujinokawa
M12w Mitakeumi
M14e Sadanoumi

I hate to say it, but I don’t think Ura will have a good tournament. He scraped through with eight wins in Nagoya, but then sat out the last day due to injury. I think age, and those knees, could finally be catching up to him and that his days as a jōi staple might be over.

I think Fujinokawa will struggle this time around, too. He received a big promotion after going 10-5 from M14. I think his small man game will be tough to employ against strong pusher thrusters like Daieishō, Kinbōzan and Takanoshō.

That’s all folks! I hope you enjoyed this quick set of predictions.

The next thing you’ll see from me is my Day 1 results post.

See you then!

Tim