2025 Kyushu banzuke prediction: Aonishiki to sekiwake, Ura returns to the joi

Predicting the 2025 Kyushu basho banzuke ahead of Grand Sumo's November tournament.

Hi all,

If you watched it, I hope you enjoyed the London Basho. I didn’t pay too much attention to it once it became very clear that those were essentially demonstration matches for the most part. Even so, it did serve to whet the appetite for the November basho, where we’ll see these amazing athletics compete to their utmost abilities.

November is what I’m talking about here, as I attempt to predict the Kyushu basho banzuke. The London ‘results’ have no bearing on this. Rather, results from the 2025 aki basho are what will determine where the Japan Sumo Association places each of the 600 or so rikishi in the Grand Sumo system.

This is my third time trying to predict a banzuke and this is, by far, is the trickiest one I’ve attempted. Scroll down to see how I struggled to make everyone fit.

This is a premium post, but I always try to be very generous with the paywall. If you’re a free subscriber you’ll be able to see my guesses at the top and the bottom of the banzuke. Paid subscribers will get to see the middle, too.

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Bonus gif for this predictions post is our last winner, Ōnosato. Pretty obvious where he’s gonna be.

“See you at the top!”

Before I get into my prediction, here’s a brief overview of how the banzuke is usually constructed.

The general rule is that wrestlers move up and down based on their net wins or losses from the past basho. That means that a wrestler who went 8-7 has a net score of +1. That means they are probably going to move up one space. However, we can’t assume that’s the case for everyone. Context matters. And, also, sometimes you just have to stick guys somewhere that more or less makes sense.

For reference, here’s the real aki banzuke. I’ve added columns here for the win-loss records from the basho, as well as the net wins.

Now, onto my predictions…

Yokozuna, Ōzeki and San’yaku

Ōnosato will keep his place as the number one yokozuna, due to defeating Hōshōryū in a play-off for the cup in September. Kotozakura remains as the lone ōzeki and, since he got a kachi-koshi in September, he’s going to remain ōzeki for at least the next two tournaments.

The sekiwake ranks are where we are going to see a big upheaval. Wakatakakage and Kirishima must lose that rank for their disappointing 6-9 records. I have them both falling past the komusubi ranks, as well.

Why not have Wakatakakage and Kirishima go down just one rank instead of two?

Well, precedence. Daieishō, Wakamotoharu, Ōhō and Kirishima were demoted from sekiwake to M1 on 6-9 records in the past two years.

It’s obvious who takes one of those ranks, Aonishiki (who went 11-4 from komusubi) is a lock to get promoted to sekiwake. The second spot is far more debatable, but it should be Ōhō. He went 10-5 from M2. Hakuōhō is the only maegashira ranked guy with a winning record ranked higher than Oho, but I think he goes to komusubi. This would be Hakuōhō’s debut in the san’yaku.

I have the other komusubi spot going to Takayasu, with him sliding half a rank down as a punishment for his 7-8 record. If this happens, it’s a somewhat friendly demotion for him (his second in a row). But with Wakatakakage and Kirishima needing to fall further than komusubi, it makes sense to keep him here.

Promotions and Relegations

This is a little tricky.

First off, here’s who absolutely has to go down to jūryō:

• Takerufuji for going 0-0-15 from M12.

• Nishikigi for going 2-13 from M16.

I don’t think there are any other ironclad cases for demotion, given how the rest of this thing needs to shake out. In my mock I am also demoting Hitoshi for going 7-8 in his debut makuuchi tournament while ranked M17.

That’s all I’m doing…

There are cases for demoting Meisei and Gōnoyama. I’m going to let Meisei survive by the skin of his teeth, by virtue of there not being a tonne of jūryō guys who need to be promoted. And Gōnoyama gets credit for fighting in the jōi, in spite of his terrible 1-14 record.

With three guys going down, I need three to come up.

Oshoumi, who went 9-6 from J1, has to come up. As does Chiyoshōma who went 9-6 from J2. I’m also bringing Nishikifuji up from J3, he went 11-4. All those guys also won against makuuchi opponents during call-ups in September, too.

Kotoeiho and Mita are the guys missing out in my mock. Kotoeiho went 8-7 from J2. Mita went 9-6 from J4. They both won their call-up bouts, too. Asanoyama is also falling short on my banzuke. He went 12-3, but he was ranked all the way down in J13.

The fact so many jūryō guys won against makuuchi opponents in the last tournament is a sign that there is a good cohort of wrestlers in the upper jūryō ranks at the moment. The glut of decent wrestlers there also meant that not many guys in jūryō were able to get gaudy records that make them obvious candidates for promotion.

Filling out the middle

Oh boy. This was tough…