2025 Kyushu basho predictions!
Here's my projected win totals for every top division sumo wrestler competing in the top division at the November tournament.
There’s new sumo tonight/tomorrow morning!
After I wake up tomorrow and make my cup of tea, Mrs. Sumo Stomp! and I will watch Day 1 of the 2025 Kyushu basho. I can’t wait.
But before I watch the first day’s action, I want to put down my predictions for the basho to come. Below are my projected win totals for everyone in makuuchi (save for Meisei, who appears out due to injury).
This is my third time doing this. And maybe third time will be the charm! So far I’ve not come very close with my predictions (unless we’re talking about the banzuke).
Scroll down to see what I think might go down over the next fifteen days.
Bonus gif today is the small but mighty Fujinokawa.
13 wins
Y1w Hoshōryū
Hoshōryū is my pick to win the 2025 Kyushu basho. I predict he will secure the cup with a final day victory over his great rival Ōnosato.
The previous tournament was so fun because both Hoshōryū and Ōnosato were able to dominate and set up a classic yokozuna duel on the final day. I think that was a sign of things to come for these two. I don’t think they have a weak field to contend with (with names like Kotozakura and Aonishiki around), but I think, right now, they are operating at such a high level that they need to be favourites to go one and two in every tournament where they are healthy.
I think Hoshōryū lost his play-off in September because he made a bad decision. He tried to henka to the wrong side of Ōnosato (his right). I trust him to pick a better move when they meet this month.
12 wins
Y1e Ōnosato
I don’t think many wrestlers not named Hoshōryu are going to find success over Ōnosato. I think he’s going to be his usual imposing self, smashing guys over and pushing them off the ring in three seconds or less. I still think Hoshōryū has his number, though, even though Ōnosato won their last match. I think Hoshōryū might have a mental edge on him, too, and I think that could be crucial in what I’m projecting is another close yushō race between the two.
11 wins
S1e Aonishiki
S1w Ōhō
Death, taxes and Aonishiki getting 11 wins, right? He’s gotten 11-4 in all four of his previous top division tournaments, despite things getting tougher due to his promotion up the ranks. He’s cut out to be sekiwake (at least!) and he’s going to prove that this month.
I think Ōhō has improved a lot this year. In January he got into a play-off with Hoshōryu and Kinbōzan. That set up his debut sekiwake tournament in March. He really struggled there and was immediately demoted. He’s been good since then, though. And he was good in September, too. He’s gotten quicker and meaner lately and he’s a guy who can potentially give our yokozuna some issues. I think his failure last time at this rank is going to help him here and we’re going to see a big tournament from the legacy wrestler.
10 wins
O1e Kotozakura
M4w Ōshōma
M7w Abi
M10e Daieishō
M13e Gōnoyama
I think Kotozakura is going to follow up from his aki basho and improve by a single win. He’s slowly getting back to being healthy and sitting out the London Basho was a fantastic idea for him. He showed flashes of his best self (which is a handful for everyone in this division) in the last tournament. If he’s healthier this month, he should be able to put together a good record, if not a title challenge.
I was really impressed by Ōshōma in the last tournament,. I think he learned some big lessons after his dreadful debut komusubi tournament in July. Last time out he was much more aggressive and did a better job of keeping his opponents guessing (instead of showing them he was only interested in the slapdown).
I think Abi, Daieishō and yes even Gōnoyama are under-ranked for this tournament.
This is the lowest any of those guys have been ranked for a long time. Abi and Daieishō are both down here because they were rehabbing injuries during the last tournament. If they are feeling better now, they should slice through a lot of these mid-to-low maegashira guys.
Gōnoyama is ranked low purely because of performance, it seems. He went 1-14 in September. He simply has to respond in a big way to close out his year with something positive. I think he is probably too good to struggle at this low a ranking, so I think he might get off to a good start and go on a big streak over the first week of the tournament.
9 wins
M6w Ōnokatsu
M16e Oshoumi
M17w Asakōryū
Ōnokatsu had a good, albeit under-the-radar, tournament last time out. I like his match-ups around that M6 space. There’s a few pusher/thrusters there that he should be able to out-grapple. I think Oshoumi is a good prospect and better than some of the vets dwelling down in the cellar. I also think Asakōryū is good enough to get a good winning record against those same aging vets.
8 wins
M1e Hakuōhō
M2w Wakamotoharu
M3e Hiradoumi
M4e Tamawashi
M5e Yoshinofuji
M6e Atamifuji
M11w Rōga
M12e Fujinokawa
M14w Tokihayate
I have a big chunk of guys here who I think will do alright in Kyushu. A number of them are wrestlers who did decent in September and have received very small promotions (Hakuōhō, Hiradoumi, Yoshinofuji, Rōga). I think Atamifuji is going to bounce back from a poor tournament in the joi last time out. And I think Fujinokawa and Tokihayate are better than some of the other wrestlers ranked around them.
Wakamotoharu looked very good in September. I’m being conservative with his wins, though, since he’ll be facing a murderer’s row in the first week.
7 wins
M1w Wakatakakage
M8e Ichiyamamoto
M8w Kinbōzan
M9e Midorifuji
M10w Kotoshōhō
M15e Nishikifuji
M15w Shōnannoumi
M16w Sadanoumi
Wakatakakage is leading my class of guys who just miss out on the kachi-koshi. I think there might be a hangover effect from his soul-crushing 6-9 in September, which may have cost him his last legitimate shot of becoming an ōzeki.
A number of the other guys in this list had underwhelming tournaments in September. Kotoshōhō had a very bad tournament in September, after being the surprise champ in July. I think he’ll continue to show us that was a real fluke in the summer.
6 wins
K1w Takayasu
M2e Kirishima
M5w Shōdai
M7e Churanoumi
M9w Tobizaru
M12w Tomokaze
M17e Chiyoshōma
Takayasu has been lucky to keep his komusubi rank in Kyushu. I think he’ll lose to both yokozuna and sekiwake and that there are enough guys in the joi who can give him trouble (Hakuōhō, Waka Bros.).
I’m very sad to give my fave Kirishima a losing record here. Maybe this will serve as a reverse jinx. I’d love to see him put up a big number in Kyushu, but I don’t like a lot of his match-ups this time around.
I also think Shōdai, Churanoumi, Tobizaru and Tomokaze will struggle after getting bumper promotions for this tournament. All of them were elevated up the ranks a little higher than you’d expect. That’s because of the glut of wrestlers in the top half of the banzuke who needed to be demoted down a lot of spaces.
5 wins
K1e Takanoshō
M11e Shishi
M13w Mitakeumi
M14e Ryūden
Takanoshō seems to only do well when he’s ranked low. He gets off to great starts, taking out rank-and-filers, before losing at crunch time. He’s going to be fighting very tough opponents from the get-go this month and I think that means he’s going to struggle to build any momentum.
Shishi also got one of those bumper promotions for Kyushu. I think he’ll find wins very difficult to come by at this ranking.
4 wins
M3w Ura
Wow, what a dirt bag, right? How can I project just four wins for the most popular rikishi on the planet? I don’t want to do it. I love the Peach Prince! But I’m also just being realistic. I really don’t like his chances as a member of the joi right now. Ura is famous for a good first week and then a poor second week (once things get harder). He’s had good first weeks in the last two tournaments (while ranked M9 and M8). His first week here, though, will include the yokozuna, Kotozakura and a lot of other guys who have very good records against him.
Please prove me wrong Pink Boy!
That’s all folks! I hope you enjoyed this quick set of predictions.
The next thing you’ll see from me is my Day 1 results post.
See you then!
Tim