2025 Nagoya banzuke prediction! And last call for Cheeky Sumo giveaway

Trying something new.

Hey all, how we doing?

Are we still basking in that post-basho glow? Or has the yearning for the next tournament already set in?

I’m feeling good and I’m still delighted to see Onosato ascend to become our 75th yokozuna. I’m really optimistic for the next few years in sumo as we see Onosato and Hoshoryu battle for dominance, while side characters try and force themselves to the front of the stage.

I’m doing something new today… a banzuke prediction! I’ve never done this before so I am fully prepared for this mock banzuke for the 2025 Nagoya basho to be completely wrong. But I don’t think that means I shouldn’t give it a go.

Before I get to that, though, this is the last chance to get in on my current prize giveaway. On June 1st I will be doing a prize draw for a Cheeky Sumo sweatshirt. The winner of this giveaway will be sent a sweatshirt in whatever size and colour they choose. This item is being provided by Maxx at Cheeky Sumo. Check out his brand and all his cool items over on the official site (link).

I think the olive green is my favourite.

All paid subscribers will be entered in the giveaway. If you are a monthly subscriber you will have one entry in the draw. If you are an annual subscriber you will receive six entries in the draw. If you are a founding subscriber you will receive twelve entries in the draw.

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Anyone who contributes via PayPal will have their subscription converted into a paid subscription ($5 CA = monthly sub, $30 CA = annual sub, $100 CA = founding sub) so they receive the same benefits as other subscribers (archive access, premium posts, etc.).

“Hmm… should I do $5 to just get in on the giveaway or help Tim out by going the whole $30?”

Ok, let’s talk banzuke.

First of all, I’m not a banzuke expert. And I’m not even very good at maths. I have a recurring nightmare that I’m still in secondary school and it’s late in the term, yet I’ve never turned up for a single maths class. I spend the entire dream agonizing on whether it’s better to turn up after missing so much or to just keep avoiding it (skiving as we’d call it where I grew up).

But banzuke maths isn’t that complicated. The general rule is that a rikishi moves up and down spaces equal to their net wins or losses. So a wrestler who went 8-7 has a net score of +1 and thus is likely to move up one space. This isn’t the only consideration, though. There’s vibes, man…

Nothing is black and white in sumo (or in Japan, for that matter). For both the sport and the country, context is key. Banzuke rankings adhere to that loose rule, but there are also considerations around who beat who and how tough someone’s schedule was. And sometimes you just have to put someone in a space that kinda makes sense.

Before I get into my prediction for Nagoya, here’s the natsu banzuke with the records and net scores. By the way, I’m just doing makuuchi here.

Yokozuna, Ozeki and San’yaku

Let’s start at the top. Hoshoryu will be joined in the yokozuna ranks by Onosato in the Nagoya banzuke. Hoshoryu will keep the Y1 east position (east is seen as marginally better than west on the banzuke) and Onosato will file in as Y1 west. The new yokozuna and ozeki always file in behind who is already there. If Onosato gets a better record than Hoshoryu in Nagoya, then he will supplant him as Y1e.

The only change in the ozeki ranks is that Kotozakura moves over to the east side, occupying the space that Onosato has left.

We are going to have three sekiwake in Nagoya with Wakatakakage going up from komusubi. Our first ‘vibes’ question is about where Daieisho and Kirishima go. Both will keep their sekiwake ranks due to both getting winning records. The question is whether Kirishima’s better record is enough for him to switch spots with Daieisho. There doesn’t seem to be a hard rule about this. If someone has a dramatically higher record then you’d usually see them swap. However, in this case we’ve got just got a one win difference. The other things to consider are Kirishima winning a technique prize in May and Daieisho winning when they met on Day 8.

I’m going to predict these two stay put, going with the recent convention of only big record differences being enough to force a switch.

We have two komusubi slots open in Nagoya, with Wakatakakage moving up and Takayasu being demoted for his 6-9 record.

The upper maegashira ranks really struggled in May, so there’s no worthy komusubi candidate until we get down to Oshoma (10-5) at M5e. I predict he’ll get that K1e spot. K1w could go to Kinbozan (10-5), Onokatsu (10-5) or Aonishiki (11-4). I think Aonishiki gets the bumper promotion and is put in that spot on the strength of his back-to-back 11-4s, his special prizes and just how desperate we all are to see him tested at the highest level.

Here’s how that all looks.

Promotions and Demotions

The middle of the banzuke is the most confusing and hard to predict, so I’ll skip ahead to the bottom for now.

Tochitaikai (4-11) and Tamashoho (4-11) are definitely going down to juryo. I think they’ll be joined by Ryuden (5-10) and Shonannoumi (5-10).

I think Nishikigi (6-9) and Shishi (4-11) might be saved. That’s mostly because when I completed the entire mock banzuke I could still see places to put them. Nishkigi is also in the same position Asakoryu was for the last tournament. Asakoryu went 6-9 from M16 and was demoted just one spot to M17w.

Kusano, who won his second juryo championship in a row in May, will certainly be coming up to makuuchi. I think he’ll be joined by Mitakeumi (8-7 from J1), Wakaikari (12-3 from J5) and Tobizaru’s brother Hidenoumi (9-6 from J2).

I think Tomokaze (10-5 from J7) and Kotoshoho’s borther Kotoeiho (11-4 from J7) will miss out. I think they are ranked a little too low in juryo to jump up right now. That, in my mock, greatly benefits Shishi.

Here’s how that looks in my mock banzuke.

Filling out the middle

This is where things get tricky. I started off trying to be as mathematical as possible with moving guys up and down based on net wins and losses. However, I then let ‘vibes’ take over a bit.