2025 Nagoya basho predictions results: Let's see how I did

I tried to predict the win-loss record for every top division rikishi.

The dust has mostly settled on the 2025 Nagoya basho. It was a very surprising tournament with plenty of twists and turns. What made it so surprising, and enjoyable, was that it featured a cadre of unexpected sumotori vying for the championship.

Hōshōryū was gone by Day 5 and Ōnosato never hit his groove. This left a wide open lane for the likes of Ichiyamamoto, Mitakeumi, Aonishiki, Atamifuji, Tamawashi, Kusano and, of course, Kotoshōhō to race for the cup.

I didn’t predict any of that.

I did make predictions, though, plenty of them. Before this tournament I speculated on what the win-loss records would be for every top division rikishi. Here’s that original post (link). And below, you’ll see how accurate I was (spoiler alert: not very).

Also, please take this as your last chance to get in on the tegata giveaway. The prize draw happens on August 1st. Monthly subscribers will be entered once. Yearly subscribers will receive six entries and founding subscribers will receive twelve entries.

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The graphic below shows my predictions and the final records for everyone in the top division. The prediction is white every time I was correct on whether the record would be winning or losing. I went 21-22 in that respect, and yes I am claiming those pre-tournament injury pull outs.

The colour coding is as follows: green means I was exactly right, yellow means I was one win away, orange means two wins away and red means I was wrong by more than two wins.

For this tournament I scored six greens (yes, including those 0-0-15s), eight yellows, twelve oranges and fifteen reds.

Not great, I know. But, to give me credit, this was a very surprising basho and… this is really hard! It is fun, though, so I’ll keep doing it.

Below the pay-wall I’ll dig a little deeper into who I really missed the mark on and who I was on the money with.

Bonus gif is our tournament champ Kotoshōhō, who I (and everyone else) never saw coming.

“Hello.”

Hōshōryū & Ōnosato

I was expecting a strong tournament from both these guys, with Hōshōryū working especially hard to seize back the narrative from Ōnosato. I had them both going 13-2 with Hōshōryū winning on the last day for his third yushō.

Obviously, that didn’t happen, with Hōshōryū looking out of sorts, due to injury (?), and Ōnosato looking out of sorts due to pressure (?). I did get some things right, though.

As far as Hōshōryū is concerned…