2025 Nagoya basho predictions!

Check out my predicted win-loss record for every top division rikishi.

Hi all,

First off, thanks to everyone who sent me nice messages/comments after my last post. Thankfully, I have a positive update.

After a brief hospital stay my father is due to be discharged later today. His extreme decline, in both physical and mental capabilities, was due to him becoming seriously diabetic sometime over the past 60 days. His glucose level was 43 when the alarm bells went off and he was ordered to hospital. I’m new to this, but everyone who has experience with diabetes has been blown away by that number. Once he was in hospital, and they started giving him insulin, he improved quite rapidly and looked and sounded more like himself. If he hadn’t been ordered to get bloodwork done on Monday, by a doctor who was seeing him over a routine rehab appointment, we would have lost him within days.

We are so blessed to live with this level of medical science and I’m so lucky to be in Canada where we have excellent access to doctors and medicine. I’m especially lucky that my parents live in Hamilton, Ontario, a city known for great hospitals and a world class diabetes clinic.

New challenges await, but everything feels a lot more hopeful than the last time I sat down at a keyboard to write about sumo.

Now I don’t need to write as a distraction. I’m running on pure excitement and eagerness for the Nagoya basho that starts this weekend!

Please scroll on for my first ever prediction post where I forecast the win-loss records for every wrestler in makuuchi.

Bonus gif today is Hōshōryū and his epic game face.

“Let’s hit diabetes with an uwatenage!”

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Hōshōryū - 13-2

Rank: Yokozuna 1 East
Previous record/rank: 12-3, jun-yushō/Y1e

I think we’re going to see a very good version of Hōshōryū in Nagoya. He should be settled down now, in his role as the 74th yokozuna. And I think that’s only been helped by the fact that there is now a 75th yokozuna. Ōnosato has drawn a lot of attention from Hōshōryū and the pressure is now squarely on the newest Japanese yokozuna to dominate this next tournament and the sport.

We’ve seen Hōshōryū wobble in his early tournaments as ōzeki and yokozuna, under-performing with losses to rank-and-filers. But throughout those tournaments, he’s still showed up in bouts with fellow elites. His final day throw down of Ōnosato in May is great evidence of that. If he is feeling relaxed in the early part of the tournament and then locked in during crunch time, I think he’s a massive threat to take home this yushō (possibly with a final day win over Ōnosato, a wrestler he is now 6-3 against).

Also, Hōshōryū likes Nagoya — his first yushō came here in 2023.

If he’s going to lose twice, my picks to beat him are Abi and Ōshōma. Hōshōryū hates these push-me-pull-you guys.

Ōnosato - 13-2

Rank: Yokozuna 1 West
Previous record/rank: 14-1, yushō/O1e

Ōnosato is probably most people’s favourite to win the Nagoya basho. And he deserves to be. His performance in May was phenomenal and he cruised through the tournament, only sweating in bouts with Wakatakakage and Hōshōryū. I think there’s a great chance he wins this tournament, but I’m giving my nod to Hōshōryū (for reasons stated above).

Nagoya has not been a happy hunting ground for Ōnosato in the past. In his debut Nagoya basho, while in makushita, he went just 4-3. His three losses in that tournament were to Tokihayate, Asakōryū and Kawazoe (someone who would have been in makuuchi a long time ago if not for injuries).

His second Nagoya tournament ended with a 9-6 record (which is the worst Ōnosato has ever done in makuuchi). That was the tournament immediately after his first yushō. He also went 9-6 after his second yushō. Maybe Ōnosato is susceptible to sumo’s version of a ‘letdown game’?

The two losses I am forecasting him to have in this tournament are to Wakatakakage and Hōshōryū on the last day (and subsequent play-off). Wakatakakage always gives a good effort against Ōnosato (who looks more human against smaller and tenacious foes) and Hōshōryū, at this point in their careers, just seems to have his number.

Kotozakura - 6-9

Rank: Ōzeki 1 East
Previous record/rank: 8-7/O1w

Kotozakura still does not look like the same wrestler who ended 2024 with a maiden yushō and the record for most wins in the calendar year (beating Ōnosato by a couple). He’s still nursing a knee injury and seems to have lost a lot of confidence over this tough recent spell.

He’s skated by in the last two tournaments, but I think he might struggle to get a kachi-koshi here. There are murmurings that he has a hurt neck at the moment, too.

I’d love it if he finished with a record like 3-4-8. That would mean he has been able to take some time off and give himself some extra time to heal. Sadly, it seems Kotozakura is being pushed by his dad/stablemaster to fight no matter what. If that’s the case here then I think there’s a good chance he gets a make-koshi and gets even more banged up in the process.

Daieishō - 0-0-15

Rank: Sekiwake 1 East
Previous record/rank: 10-5/S1e

Initially I had Daieishō down for a 10-5 in Nagoya. He usually does well in the first two legs of an ōzeki run before blowing it in the third. Sadly, Daieishō won’t get a chance to put up a big number this month. It seems like he might be out for the duration of the tournament due to an upper body injury.

This will mark the first time Daieishō has ever missed a bout due to injury in his 13 year career.

Kirishima - 10-5

Rank: Sekiwake 1 West
Previous record: 11-4, ginō-shō/S1w

I think Kirishima is due for a good tournament in Nagoya. I think he and Wakatakakage are going to benefit from Ōshōma and Takayasu under-performing at komusubi and some rookie jōi members (Aonishiki, Ōnokatsu, Kinbōzan, Hakuōhō) being slow to find their footing.

Kirishima looked fantastic in May, perhaps the best since 2023, where he won two yushō . I want to believe he’s got what it takes to become ōzeki again and I think he’s got a good chance of going into the aki basho with a legitimate shot of making that a reality.

Wakatakakage - 11-4

Rank: Sekiwake 2 West
Previous record: 12-3, jun-yushō, ginō-shō/K1w

Just like Kirishima, I think Wakatakakage is going to feast on the ranks directly below him in Nagoya. I think Wakatakakage is the third best wrestler in the division currently, behind our two yokozuna. He’s been a man on a mission since returning from injury. His goal must have been to reclaim his sekiwake rank. But having gotten there so quickly, and with a great track record against Ōnosato and Hōshōryū (14-10 combined), I think he can taste that ōzeki rank now. He never came close to that rank during his first stint as a sekiwake, but his path from injury, rehab and then makushita on up, has seasoned and improved Wakatakakage considerably. He’s 30 now and in a make-or-break time in his career. Given how he’s looked this year, I’m betting on him to make it.

Ōshōma - 5-10

Rank: Komusubi 1 East
Previous record: 10-5/M6e

I think Ōshōma will struggle in his debut san’yaku tournament. His game relies on fooling opponents into coming forwards so he can slap them down. You’ve got to be really good to fool this level of wrestlers, though. Ōshōma is currently winless against Ōnosato, Hōshōryū, Kirishima, Kotozakura and Takayasu. I also think it gets easier to fight Ōshōma the more times you face him. Because of that, I think some of the new jōi-boys (who have come up with Ōshōma) might start getting wins over him.

Takayasu - 6-9

Rank: Komusubi 1 West
Previous record: 6-9/K1e

Takayasu looked hurt in May. He seemed to abandon grappling and tried to win with just thrusts. This might mean his back or knees (which you need for moving around opponents) are compromised. We’re used to this from Takayasu and we’re pretty lucky to have seen him compete fully in five straight tournaments. At 35, though, I think his age and potential injury status might mean the rookie jōi-boys have a pretty good shot at banking wins against him.

Aonishiki - 9-6

Rank: Maegashira 1 East
Previous record/rank: 11-4, kantō-shō/M9e

Aonishiki has looked close to flawless in his two prior makuuchi tournaments. I think the good times will continue to roll for the Ukrainian. But I don’t think we’re going to see another double-digit win record for him here. His only losses in May were to Kinbōzan, Wakatakakage, Kotozakura and Daieishō. He’s never beaten any of those guys. He’ll be getting Kinbōzan, Kotozakura and Wakatakage this time, along with both yokozuna.

Aonishiki fights with a lot of creativity and spontaneity right now. That might be because he doesn’t have a track record to look at when it comes to his opponents, especially those who have been ranked much higher than him in the past two tournaments. I think this approach will give him a kachi-koshi (thanks to his incredible natural talent and athleticism), but I think it’s going to take him a few tournaments to figure out reliable strategies to use against guys who are two good to beat without any kind of game-plan.

Wakamotoharu - 6-9

Rank: Maegashira 1 East
Previous record/rank: 7-8/M1e

I think the game might be starting to pass Wakamotoharu by a little bit. He’s going to draw a lot of pusher/thrusters this tournament (Ōhō, Ōshōma, Abi, Kinbōzan, Tamawashi, Takayasu), which is an archetype he typically struggles against. He’s also terrible against the big guns in the division.

Ōhō - 8-7

Rank: Maegashira 2 East
Previous record/rank: 7-8/M1w

Ōhō hasn’t had a winning record since that play-off appearance in January. I think he stops the bleeding here. He and Abi are alone in the jōi when it comes to having lots of experience and multiple wins against Ōnosato, Hōshōryū and Kotozakura. I think he’ll pick one of those guys off and cobble enough wins from the maegashira to get the kachi-koshi.

Abi - 10-5

Rank: Maegashira 2 West
Previous record/rank: 7-8/M2e

Abi is due for a breakout tournament. Since going 11-4 in November he’s gone 7-8, 6-9, 7-8. He’s ranked around a lot of youngsters in this tournament. A lot of those kids aren’t that familiar with his sumō. I think he’ll get the better of them here and also get a few wins off the san’yaku.

Ōnokatsu - 8-7

Rank: Maegashira 3 East
Previous record/rank: 10-5/M8e

This is a big step up for Ōnokatsu. His previous highest rank was M8. He’s never faced Hōshōryū, Ōnosato, Kotozakura or Kirishima. And he’s 0-3 against Wakatakakage. I think he’ll lose those big bouts, but his track record against the others who have come up to the jōi with him is pretty good. I also think his yotsu wrestling is some of the best of his generation.

Kinbōzan - 9-6

Rank: Maegashira 3 West
Previous record/rank: 10-5/M8w

This is Kinbōzan’s highest rank ever, though he has had some reps at M5 before. He didn’t fare very well during those tournaments, though. He’s also gotten some experience against big names and high pressure bouts thanks to that run he had in January. I think he’s had enough exposure to this end of the banzuke that he won’t be intimidated this time around.

Hakuōhō - 7-8

Rank: Maegashira 4 East
Previous record/rank: 8-7/M7

Two years ago Hakuōhō debuted in the top division, in Nagoya, and looked like the super prospect we were expecting. He came very close to winning his debut tournament. This was before that was blasé, with Atamifuji’s runner-up efforts, Takerufuji’s history making yushō and Ōnosato’s exploits. Since his shoulder injury it’s been slowly, slowly, catchy monkey for Hakuōhō. His improvements have been slight and I still think we are some ways away from seeing his full potential again. I fear we could see a backwards step from him this month.

Tamawashi - 7-8

Rank: Maegashira 4 West
Previous record/rank: 6-9/M3e

I’m expecting a typical hit and miss tournament for Tamawashi in Nagoya. He’s always a tough out, but I think M4 is a little too high for him to thrive.

Hiradoumi - 6-9

Rank: Maegashira 5 East
Previous record/rank: 6-9/M3w

Hiradoumi’s development seemed to have stalled out once he hit komusubi last year. He’s still young, but the rest of the division is catching up to him. There are lots of young guys around this ranking in Nagoya and many of them are continuing to show improvements.

Meisei - 8-7

Rank: Maegashira 5 West
Previous record/rank: 9-6/M10e

Meisei is going to bring the violence in every bout. He’s been wallowing around M10 a lot lately. This is the former sekiwake’s chance to stick around at a higher ranking and I think he’ll take it (he’ll also get to skip a bout with stablemate Hōshōryū).

Takerufuji - 10-5

Rank: Maegashira 6 East
Previous record/rank: 6-9/M4e

Takerufuji looked pretty ordinary at M4 in May. There’s a pretty big difference between M4 and M6, though. Here he should be protected from the upper ranked wrestlers during the first week of the basho. I think he goes on a long winning streak to start the basho and then falls back once those big names come knocking.

Gōnoyama - 7-8

Rank: Maegashira 6 West
Previous record/rank: 4-11/M2w

Gōnoyama has not been able to take the next step in his career and reach the san’yaku, yet. I’m starting to believe that might be a step too far for him. His ceiling is around this level, I think.

Tobizaru - 7-8

Rank: Maegashira 7 East
Previous record/rank: 7-8/M6w

Tobizaru is in the declining years of his career. I don’t think he’s cut out to be a jōi staple nowadays, given the current youth movement in makuuchi. I think he has a lot of time left in the top division, but I think he’ll be going back and forth between 7-8 and 8-7 records in the middle of the maegashira ranks (not the top anymore).

Endō - 0-0-15

Rank: Maegashira 7 West
Previous record/rank: 9-6/M11e

Endō is missing this tournament due to knee surgery. Had he competed on that bad knee (for the third tournament in a row), I don’t think he would have done better than 6-9.

Sadanoumi - 5-10

Rank: Maegashira 8 East
Previous record/rank: 10-5 kantō-shō/M13w

Sadanoumi was a stand out performer in May. His 10-5 shot him up to his highest position since this time last year. Each time he’s been ranked around this level in the last two years he’s had a losing record.

Ichiyamamoto - 8-7

Rank: Maegashira 8 West
Previous record/rank: 5-10/M4w

I don’t think Ichiyamamoto is cut out for the jōi, but I think he’s good enough to hang at this level.

Ura - 6-9

Rank: Maegashira 9 East
Previous record/rank: 5-10/M5e

Age is starting to catch up with Ura. He’ll continue looking for highlight reel finishes, but the wins are going to be hard to come by.