2026 Haru banzuke prediction
Predicting the 2026 Haru basho banzuke ahead of Grand Sumo's March tournament.
Hello all and welcome to my prediction for the upcoming March banzuke. The official thing is due to drop on February 23. Below you’ll see how I think it will all shake out.
It’s going to be another strange banzuke due to how the results panned out at the January tournament. Just like in previous tournaments there was a glut of wrestlers grouped together who all had poor records. This means there will be a group of wrestlers who don’t fall that far despite lopsided losing records (since there aren’t enough wrestlers below them who are obvious candidates to go above them). There will also be a big open space in the middle of the banzuke representing where all the lower ranked poor performers have shifted down in rank. This big open space will need to be populated with wrestlers who did well. So we’re also going to see a couple of bumper promotions, too.
Scroll down to see me break down what I think will happen in more detail.
The bonus gif today is someone in line for a promotion.
Before I get into my prediction, here’s a brief overview of how the banzuke is typically drawn up:
The general rule is that wrestlers move up and down based on their net wins or losses from the past basho. That means that a wrestler who went 8-7 has a net score of +1. That then means they are probably going to move up one space. However, we can’t assume that’s the case for everyone. Context matters. And, also, sometimes you just have to stick guys somewhere that more or less makes sense.
Here’s the real January banzuke along with the results for each wrestler. I’ve also added columns here for net wins.
Now, onto my predictions.
Yokozuna, Ōzeki and San’yaku
This is pretty easy.
Hōshōryū and Ōnosato stay put. They tied on records, so Hōshōryū holds onto the number one spot (the east).
Aonishiki does take the prime ōzeki ranking from Kotozakura, though, by virtue of having the better record in January.
Our sekiwake Kirishima and Takayasu stay where they are. Kirishima’s big showing in January has him on a good start for his ōzeki run. Takayasu limped over the line with an 8-7, but that’s enough to keep his rank.
I have Wakamotoharu and Atamifuji getting the komusubi spots. This would be a first and an all-time high for Atamifuji, who finished runner-up in January. Wakamotoharu obviously moves to the east side here, since he got a winning record while fighting on the west side in January. He takes the spot that was previously held by Ōhō.
Atamifuji sails past most of the other guys who were ranked above him in the last basho. Yoshinofuji and Wakatakakage were the only ones, along with Atamifuji, to have winning records in the jōi. But their higher placement in the previous banzuke doesn’t beat, in my opinion, Atamifuji’s nine net wins and his runner-up finish.
The jōi
Yoshinofuji and Wakatakakage are the obvious choices for maegashira 1 for reasons explained above.
Now, this is where the fun begins.
I have Churanoumi going up to a career best M2e. That is a mildly generous promotion (3.5 ranks off three net wins). Hiradoumi gets the same degree of promotion to also claim M2w.
Ōhō then gets an exceedingly kind demotion from me down to M3e. That’s just three ranks down despite having seven net losses. I have to keep Ōhō relatively high, though, because I also have Ichiyamamoto and Ura relatively high (who both went 4-11, too). I’ll get to why those two are still placed high soon. But the fact is I can’t put Ōhō under them, since they had the same record while Ōhō was ranked higher than them.
Across from Ōhō is Fujinokawa. I’m projecting Fujinokawa to get his highest ever rank here. This will only be his fifth top division tournament ever and he’s going to get a chance to throw his all-out aggressive style at the elites. I seriously can’t wait to see him fly at Ōnosato, Hōshōryū and Aonishiki!
Rounding out the jōi is Daieishō, who keeps his rank despite the 7-8 record, and Abi who get a big eight rank promotion off five net wins. I have Abi leap frogging all the mid-banzuke losers from the last tournament. I think the context around his career will help the JSA do the same (when they consider he is a longtime upper ranker who was only down in the rankings due to injury).
Promotions and Relegations
This is pretty easy to sort out.
Hatsuyama has to go down off his 2-13 record from M17w. And Ryūden has gotta go, too, due to his record and his loss to jūryō call-up Kotoeihō at the end of the March tournament. Tomokaze’s 4-11 record from M13w is bad enough to drop him all the way out the bottom of the division, too.
That leaves three open spots.
Kotoeihō has to have one of them. He beat Ryūden and finished 8-7 at J1e in January. Fujisuen has to get one, too. He went 11-4 from J1w. Fujiryoga, Fujiseun’s teammate, gets the final spot for his 9-6 from J3e.
Sadanoumi is the one who misses out on promotion despite doing well from a high jūryō ranking. He had a chance to win his promotion, with a final day bout with Asahakūryū. But Asahakūryū got the win and, with it, a kachi-koshi and his place in makuuchi guaranteed for March.
Asahakūryū stays in the basement here, though. He’s joined by veterans Midorifuji, Mitakeumi, Tobizaru, Kinbōzan, Chiyoshōma and Nishikifuji. They all go down a number of ranks that more or less match their net wins/losses. And they will all be fighting with their top division status on the line in March.
Filling out the rest
Here’s how I tried to sort out the hardest part of the banzuke.
