2026 Haru basho predictions results: It's not pretty
I tried to predict the win-loss record for every top division rikishi.
Hi all,
I hope you’re still on a high from the March basho (and my favourite rikishi winning the cup!). Now we have a long wait until the May tournament, which I kind of love. I find the breaks between tournaments really help me build anticipation for the next one. By the time any tournament comes around, I feel very ready to dive back in for fifteen straight days. If it was every month, I don’t know if that would be true (that would also be murder on those poor big boys).
The long break also gives me lots of time (theoretically) to produce some reaction and analysis content on what we just saw.
Here’s the first of those. This is my recap post for the predictions I made before the 2026 haru basho. Boy, was I off!
Read on to see what I got right and all the things I got wrong.
The bonus gif is someone who I actually thought would have a good tournament.
Below is the March banzuke with the records for everyone in the top division. On the outside columns are my predictions. As you can see, I wasn’t very accurate. It happens.
The predictions on the outside columns are either green or red. Green means I was right about whether a wrestler would get a winning or losing record. Red means I was wrong.
My tally for this tournament was 18 right and 24 wrong. That is the reverse of how I did for the January tournament. And it’s also the worst I’ve done since doing this. To be fair, this was a very surprising, and upset-laden, tournament.
The shading behind the records shows how close/far I was on the specific records for each guy. A green backing means I got the prediction exactly right. Yellow means I was off by a single win. Orange means was off by two wins. And red means I was off by more than three wins.
I only got seven perfects and one of those was pretty cheap (it was obvious that Midorifuji would sit out the entire tournament).
There are 20 red spots on that banzuke. That is, by far, the most I’ve ever had on one of these. Let’s dive into some specific spots where I got things right and wrong.
I called it with Kirishima, kinda
I was bullish on Kirishima before this tournament. I thought he was going to get enough wins to make a case for an ōzeki promotion. I thought he was going to get the ōzeki spot by virtue of Aonishiki leaving a spot open after ascending to the lofty rank of yokozuna.
However, with Aonishiki failing to make that grade, Kirishima would have likely missed out on an ōzeki promotion with just eleven wins (33 over the past three tournaments). That’s because he was ranked maegashira 2 for part of that run (the JSA typically wants ōzeki candidates to get their wins at komusubi and sekiwake). However, the yushō erased all doubts about his worthiness for that promotion. It’s since been confirmed that he will be the third ōzeki on the May banzuke.
I had Kirishima going 11-4 in this tournament and I’m delighted that he bested that by one.
I was wrong on Ōnosato and Aonishiki
I thought Ōnosato’s shoulder would have been better now than it was in January and that would allow him to do better than he did in January. However, it turns out his shoulder was worse than ever and that led to a record that was his worst ever.
So my prediction for him winning the cup was way off.
I also thought Aonishiki would do enough to clinch that yokozuna promotion, by finishing runner-up. He missed out on that in a big way. But who could have predicted that he would end up 7-8 here?
I have written extensively on how folks might beat Aonishiki and, since Kyushu, have been noting when opponents force him to stay upright. I thought things would get tougher for him in this tournament, with more guys figuring him out, but I didn’t expect the division writ large to start nullifying his game.
The pressure is now on the Blue Whirlwind to find new ways to win before he’s booted from the ōzeki ranks.
I got Hōshōryū’s record right, that’s something
My Hōshōryū prediction was pretty accurate. Here’s what I said:
I think Hōshōryū will be good in this tournament, but just slightly off the pace. I can see him taking an early loss to a high maegashira ranked wrestler (as he often does), perhaps Yoshinofuji. I think he loses to Atamifuji, too (he has bad records against him) and drops one to someone totally surprising like a Fujinokawa or Churanoumi. Those three losses plus losses to Kirishima and Aonishiki will keep him out the yushō title hunt.
I called his losses to Fujinokawa and Kirishima, but I didn’t see him getting his first win over Aonishiki.
Though I did correctly predict he would do well in this tournament and be slightly off the pace, I didn’t think he would end up with the jun-yushō.
Other Hits
I was right that Atamifuji would stick the landing at komusubi. Here’s what I said about him:
I think Atamifuji will handle the pressure of his first san’yaku appearance well. I don’t think he’s going to follow up his jun-yushō with another title run, though. I think he does well against Hōshōryū, but I think that might be the only win he gets off the special names ranks. I think he’ll beat enough people below the san’yaku to have a winning record.
I got his record right, but I was wrong about how he would fare against those ranked above him. Atamifuji ended up beating Ōnosato, Aonishiki, Kotozakura and Wakamotoharu.
I was also right that Kinbōzan would show up in this tournament:
And, as far as Kinbōzan, goes, I think we’ll get a big performance out of him with his makuuchi spot on the line.
And I was correct that Wakatakakage would “scrape by” with eight wins:
Wakatakakage did well in January, but I think he might just scrape by here, given how how well I’ve projected a lot of the wrestlers above him to do.
Other Misses
Oh Lord, too many to name. Here’s some though…
