2026 Nagoya banzuke prediction: Brother vs. Brother
Predicting the 2026 Nagoya banzuke ahead of Grand Sumo's July tournament.
Hello everyone,
Today I have my banzuke prediction for the 2026 Nagoya basho. That tournament gets underway in the second week of July and the actual banzuke comes out June 29.
Below is what I think might happen, along with lots of pictures showing my methodology. Hope you enjoy it!
The bonus gif today is a man who is somewhat of an oddity in this forthcoming banzuke (at least according to my prediction).
Before I get into my banzuke, here’s something to consider regarding how these rankings work:
The general rule is that wrestlers move up and down based on their net wins or losses from the past basho. That means that a wrestler who went 8-7 has a net score of +1. That then means they are probably going to move up one space. However, we can’t assume that’s the case for everyone. Context matters. And, also, sometimes you just have to stick guys somewhere that more or less makes sense.
Now, below is the real May banzuke, along with the records each wrestler earned at that tournament. I’ve also added columns here for net wins. And, for the first time ever, I’ve got jūryō in here, too. Yep, I’m going to be predicting the jūryō rankings, too.
I’m using the Guess The Banzuke helper page (found here) to make my banzuke. Here’s how we’re starting out:
Let’s play.
Step 1: Yokozuna and Ōzeki
As per usual, this is the easiest part of the banzuke to figure out. Hōshōryū and Ōnosato stay put, since Ōnosato didn’t get more wins than Hōshōryū. Kirishima goes up to ōzeki 1 east, since he had a better record than Kotozakura (and since Aonishiki will be departing this section).
Step 2: The san’yaku
This section isn’t tough to figure out, either. Aonishiki drops down to sekiwake from ōzeki due to his two losing records in a row. Atamifuji and Kotoshōhō both got winning records in their debut sekiwake tournaments, so they keep their ranks. Wakatakakage has to be promoted from komusubi with a 12-3 and a yushō.
This means we’re going to have four sekiwake at the July tournament. That’s not a very common occurrence, but it’s also not terribly rare.
Yoshinofuji moves up to komusubi from M2. No one in the jōi did better than him. That will be a debut appearance for him in the san’yaku. Ōhō moves up to komusubi, leapfrogging some guys who got losing records. This will be his second time as komusubi (he has been sekiwake twice, too). He’s yet to get a winning record in the san’yaku.
Step 3: Math it out
My next step is going to be to just moving everyone else around according to their net wins/losses, despite the logjams that this will create.
Here’s what it looks like when I do that.
A little overwhelming, no?
Step 4: The jōi
There’s a lot to do here, but I’ll start with the jōi (positions M1-M4).
This banzuke is a lot like the other ones this year where there is a block of guys around the jōi and just below who did poorly and need to go down and a block of guys who did well and need to come up. But those blocks have a big gap in between. So we’re going to have to over promote some and under demote some others. The tricky part is deciding how generous or lenient to be.
The block of strugglers right under the jōi means there are very few wrestlers who deserve, based on numbers, to come up and take someone’s spot. The only wrestlers who did well, and are within striking distance, are Churanoumi and Hakunofuji. So they will move up. I’m giving Churanoumi a slight over promotion, but Hakunofuji’s promotion is perfect for his net wins.
To make up the numbers, I’m letting four of the jōi guys keep their spots. I just don’t have the bodies to supplant them. If this happens, it would mean Daieishō would have been ranked M4e for four straight tournaments.
Gōnoyama is the only member of the jōi, other than Yoshinofuji, to get a winning record, so he can move up, too. Ichiyamamoto gets a slightly friendly demotion for reasons stated above.
Step 4: M5 to M7
Time to figure out one of our big gaps. The first thing I’m going to do is move Ura up to M5. That makes total sense and it’s just one spot higher than his net wins. Kotoeihōwill join him there. That’s a big promotion for him, but it’s not outlandish.
I’ll move Ōshōma up to the next highest empty spot. And I’ll let Fujiseun stay pat. The next spot I have open is M7. This is where I need to be lenient. It would feel absurd to have the next highest ranked winners (Tobizaru and Rōga) move up this high.
So I’m going to let Wakamotoharu and Shōdai land here. This means Wakamotoharu is going down two ranks on five net losses. And Shōdai is going down two ranks on three net losses. The JSA have, historically, been kind to wrestlers who were in the jōi (respecting how hard their schedule is in a given tournament).
Wakamotoharu and Shōdai weren’t in the jōi in the last tournament. However, since three of the top wrestlers in the division sat out due to injury, wrestlers in the M5 and M6 ranks had tougher schedules than usual (since they needed those ranks to fight the remaining ōzeki and san’yaku). I think it’s likely that Wakamotoharu and Shōdai will get the kind of demotion they might have gotten if they were M4 last month.
After those moves, we’re left with this:
Step 5: Figure out that even bigger gap
I’m now left with a chasm between M7 and M11. The first thing I can do is be kind to Takayasu and let him take the highest spot here.
Now I have to really over promote some guys.
Rōga is the first lucky recipient. I’m putting him up six ranks to sit next to Takayasu. I’ll give Chiyoshōma the friendly demotion and let him go to M9. He doesn’t quite fit my theories about the ‘shadow joi’, which saw a friendly demotion for Wakamotoharu. But this makes the most sense to me right now.
Asanoyama can sit still. I still have a lot of ground to cover, so Tobizaru and Fujiryoga are going to get big promotions, too.
That gives us this:
Step 6: Finishing off the bottom
The bottom section isn’t too hard. I’ll start by bumping up Mitakeumi to M11e. I need someone for the west side and I really don’t want to put Takerufuji there. I checked historical examples and going from J2 to M11 seems a bit too much of a stretch. I’ll be kind to Asahakūryū instead and let him sit opposite Mitakeumi.
Next, I’ll bump Wakanoshō up one space to sit opposite Takerufuji (who is still getting a very kind promotion).
Abi and Nishikifuji can go up one rank each to sit opposite each other at M13. That makes a lot of sense, especially since they were both M9 and both had 5-10 records.
When Abi and Nishikifuji move up, that clears the jam at M14 and lets me leave Kazuma and Kinbōzan there (who are stablemates, by the way). Ōnokatsu and Shishi are both stuck together. I’ll drop Shishi down (as punishment for that henka on Tamawashi!).
I’m left with a very interesting logjam at M16w; between brothers Asakōryū and Asasuiryū.
Step 7: Brother vs. Brother
We now have two ōzeki and four sekiwake on the banzuke, that means we will only be going down as far as M16 for the July tournament (since makuuchi is capped at 42 spaces). So, in my prediction, only one of Asakōryū and Asasuiryū can be in makuuchi and the other has to go down to jūryō.
I think Asakōryū is going to keep his place in the division. In my banzuke, I’ve followed the rule of being kind to guys ranked just outside the jōi and Asakōryū fits that category. I think his slightly tougher than usual schedule will help him get the tiebreaker over his brother. That’s a shame. If Asasuiryū did come up we’d have three sets of brothers in the makuuchi.
By sending Asasuiryū back down to jūryō, I have my completed first pass of the makuuchi banzuke.
It looks nice.
Here’s where jūryō stands.
