2026 Nagoya basho predictions results: Atamifuji in a play-off, who knew? Me, that's who
I tried to predict the win-loss record for every top division rikishi.
Hi everyone!
I hope you’re all still on a high from the most recent tournament. The 2026 Nagoya basho was probably the most exciting tournament we’ve had this year — with all the big names, save Wakatakakage involved, the wild matches and lots of contenders fighting it out in the final few days.
Today I’m recapping the predictions I made before the tournament. And, you know what? I did pretty good. That’s a first when it comes to these win-loss predictions.
Read on to see what I was right and wrong about.
The bonus gif today is a man who I thought would do well in July.
Before I break down my predictions, here’s the the July banzuke with the win-loss records for everyone in the top and second division. My predictions are on the outer columns.
The font for the predictions is either green or red. Green means I was correct about whether a wrestler would have a winning or losing record. And red means I was wrong.
In the top division, I went 23-19 on just picking whether guys would have winning or losing records. That is one away from my best ever mark of 24-18.
July marked the first time I ever did predictions for jūryō, too. I went a very good 20-8 there. So combined, I went 43-27. I don’t think that’s too shabby.
The shading represents how close I was on the prediction. If the shading is green, I nailed it. If it’s yellow, I’m off by a single win. If it’s orange, I’m off by two wins. And if it’s red I’m off by three or more.
I have 11 greens in makuuchi this time. I only had six in the last tournament. I had 16 when including jūryō. Two of those are quite cheap, though, with the 0-0-15 records for Wakatakakage and Hakuyozan.
I have 24 total red spaces. In the last tournament, I had eighteen in my makuuchi picks alone. So this is another all-time high for me.
If you’ve been here a while, though, you’ll know that me breaking records with these numbers isn’t that impressive (since I usually do so poorly).
Either way, here are some interesting notes about where I was right and wrong.
I was right to have Atamifuji as a pre-tournament favorite
I really liked what I saw from Atamifuji heading into this one and I thought this might be a tournament where he takes the next step forward in his career. He looked like he was going to do that, especially when he beat Aonishiki on the final day and then took out Kirishima in the play-off. However, Aonishiki would get the last laugh and make Atamifuji a five time bridesmaid.
Here’s what I said about Atamifuji before the tournament:
My prediction for the 2026 Nagoya basho is a play-off between Hōshōryū and Atamifuji. If that comes to fruition, I think it’s a toss up between those two who takes it. Hōshōryū has more talent, in my opinion, but Atamifuji’s size causes him problems.
…
I like the progression I’ve seen with Atamifuji this year. He hasn’t been flashy, but he’s slowly and gradually improved his ranking and standing in the sport. And he’s still only 23. He’s always had great size and his yotsu-zumō (grappling) is extremely good; especially when he uses gaburi-yori (torso thrusting). His mentality let him down in the past. He used to get nervous before the big matches. But he seems to have conquered that and even developed a bit of a mean streak. I think that’s all a good sign for a Atami-pudding yushō in the very near future.
Obviously I was very wrong about Hōshōryū. I thought he had the advantage over Ōnosato and Aonishiki going into this one. I believed that because his injury woes seemed the less severe and he looked very good in the open practises I saw before the tournament.
However, Hōshōryū would disappoint in Nagoya and then cite injuries as the reason why. I really want the 74th yokozuna to do well, but I’m not buying that excuse. I’ll get into this more in my report cards, but I think his sumō was a little arrogant this month.
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I thought Aonishiki would win back his ōzeki rank
I was expecting Aonishiki to get double-digit wins in Nagoya, though I thought a yushō might have been a bridge too far for him. Doubt Aonishiki at your peril, though, right?
Here’s my pre-basho take on the Blue Whirlwind:
I’m predicting Aonishiki gets the ten wins he needs to get immediately promoted back to ōzeki. He was found out in March, with his opponents targeting his freestyle wrestling like posture (with a myriad of methods). I have faith that, after a tournament off, the young and wildly talented Ukrainian has figured out how to get back to winning ways (perhaps through an embrace of more classical sumo?).
Aonishiki’s style didn’t shift that much in Nagoya. He stuck with what he does best and that was enough to beat the vast majority of the division. His losses did feature opponents targeting his leaned over posture, but those were few and far between and it didn’t end up costing him either his ōzeki promotion or the yushō.
I was somewhat right about a strong san’yaku/weak jōi
I thought a lot of what happened during this tournament would be down to the strength I saw in the san’yaku and the comparative weakness I saw in the jōi. I think I was onto something there, but that dichotomy wasn’t as extreme as I was forecasting.
Two of our three play-off wrestlers were from the san’yaku. But I really thought Kotoshōhō and Yoshinofuji were going to be bigger factors than they ended up being. Both really struggled. Here’s what I said about Yoshinofuji:
Yoshinofuji has progressed a lot this year. He just looks like he belongs at this level and soon, I bet, we’re going to start seeing him belong at an even higher level than this. He has off-the-charts athleticism and a fantastic mindset. He has room to grow, technically, but I don’t think that will hold him back in this tournament.
I was right about the weak jōi, though. Of the eight wrestlers ranked from M1-4, only Fujinokawa, Hakunofuji and Daieishō had winning records. I thought Hakunofuji would be the only one to get a winning record in that cohort.
I didn’t see Shishi coming
Can you blame me for getting my Shishi prediction wrong? Who on Earth thought he would be a title contender in Nagoya? I grouped him in with Tobizaru and Nishikifuji in the six wins club, writing:
Tobizaru had a big tournament in May. I think this will be a letdown basho for him. I think Nishikifuji and Shishi will struggle. Both are at their ceilings here and I can see them yo-yo-ing between makuuchi and jūryō over the next few tournaments.
I was wrong about Shishi’s record there, but I still think he’s at his ceiling. I was wrong about Nishikifuji’s record, too. He looked like a shock contender after the first week, too.
I did OK with jūryō
I had Toshinofuji as my winner and he got into a play-off. Here’s what I wrote about him before the tournament.
Toshinofuji is my pick to win the second division title. I love his size and his yotsu skills. He lacked consistency in May. That was his debut tournament in jūryō. This time around, I think he’ll be able to put in a complete fifteen day performance. I think Asahifuji is going to win makushita this month. So that means I’m predicting a possible Isegahama sweep (if Atamifuji comes out on top in makuuchi) of the top three divisions.
See how I got the Asahifuji prediction right, too? I wasn’t exactly going out on a limb there, though.
I was mostly right about who would and wouldn’t get those winning records in the second division. I thought Tamawashi and Tokihayate would land on their feet after their demotions. And I thought eventual winner Shōnannoumi would do well, based on what I saw in May.
I was also right about Nishikigi getting a losing record, too, despite being ranked in the cellar of the division.
