2026 Nagoya basho predictions! The Isegahama takeover begins

Here's my projected win totals for every top division sumo wrestler competing in the top division at the July tournament.

Jul 11, 2026

The Nagoya basho starts this weekend!

Before the festivities (and my daily tournament updates), it’s time for me to try and predict the win-loss records for every wrestler in the top two divisions. That’s right, I’m doing jūryō predictions, too. That’s a first for me.

Enjoy!

The bonus gif today is a man I’m predicting will have a tough time this month.

12 wins

Y1e Hōshōryū
S1e Atamifuji

My prediction for the 2026 Nagoya basho is a play-off between Hōshōryū and Atamifuji. If that comes to fruition, I think it’s a toss up between those two who takes it. Hōshōryū has more talent, in my opinion, but Atamifuji’s size causes him problems.

I thought Hōshōryū was in a great spot to challenge for the title in May. He seemed recovered from his various injuries and the prospect of not having to face either Ōnosato or Aonishiki would have made the field a lot easier for him. It wasn’t meant to be, though. I don’t think the hamstring injury is going to carry over into this tournament. He’s looking very good on exhibition and in some open practises. If Ōnosato and Aonishiki might still be a little rusty, so this might be a very good opportunity for Hōshōryū to add to his slightly underwhelming yushō haul.

I like the progression I’ve seen with Atamifuji this year. He hasn’t been flashy, but he’s slowly and gradually improved his ranking and standing in the sport. And he’s still only 23. He’s always had great size and his yotsu-zumō (grappling) is extremely good; especially when he uses gaburi-yori (torso thrusting). His mentality let him down in the past. He used to get nervous before the big matches. But he seems to have conquered that and even developed a bit of a mean streak. I think that’s all a good sign for a Atami-pudding yushō in the very near future.

11 wins

Y1w Ōnosato

This is assuming that Ōnosato is able to make it through fifteen days of competition. He’s listed for day one and just blanked Kotozakura in eleven practise bouts. I think we might see something similar to what we saw in January. In that tournament, Ōnosato was compromised, but still able to compete through the entire basho. In that tournament he used his size and athleticism to rush opponents out but, at times, was clearly babying his shoulder, especially in prolonged and more arduous matches. He went 10-5 then.

This is wishful thinking from me. There’s a good chance that a few hard tachiai might land Ōnosato back on the sidelines. Hopefully that doesn’t happen, though.

10 wins

O1e Kirishima
S2w Aonishiki
K1e Yoshinofuji
M13w Takerufuji

Kirishima has been the best wrestler of 2026 and I think he’s going to pick up where he left off in May. However, I think the field will be a lot more challenging for him this time around. I think that means he’ll get a good record, but fall short of being a serious title challenger. He does have a shot at becoming a yokozuna in this tournament. But he’ll probably need at least a 14-1 record and the yushō. That’s a very tough ask anyway. But with Ōnosato, Hōshōryū and Aonishiki back in action, I think that might be an impossible task.

I think the san’yaku is going to be very good this month and that they might feast on the jōi at this tournament. We’ve got a very good collection of wrestlers in these upper rankings, including the returning Aonishiki and the debuting Yoshinofuji.

I’m predicting Aonishiki gets the ten wins he needs to get immediately promoted back to ōzeki. He was found out in March, with his opponents targeting his freestyle wrestling like posture (with a myriad of methods). I have faith that, after a tournament off, the young and wildly talented Ukrainian has figured out how to get back to winning ways (perhaps through an embrace of more classical sumo?).

Yoshinofuji has progressed a lot this year. He just looks like he belongs at this level and soon, I bet, we’re going to start seeing him belong at an even higher level than this. He has off-the-charts athleticism and a fantastic mindset. He has room to grow, technically, but I don’t think that will hold him back in this tournament.

I have Yoshinofuji’s stablemate Takerufuji getting double digits on his return to the top division. I think he has a very friendly ranking at this tournament (M13) and I was very impressed with how he finished the last tournament.

I’ve picked three Isegahama guys to get 10+ wins. It’s going to be hard to ignore just how stacked that stable is right now (thanks to JSA shenanigans, of course).

9 wins

S1w Kotoshōhō
M3w Hakunofuji
M7w Takayasu
M8e Wakamotoharu
M11e Wakanoshō
M16w Asakōryū

I have Kotoshōhō doing well in this tournament, too. I’ve doubted him during this current career surge, but I think he’ll continue to win at sekiwake. He seems to have reined in his chaotic tendencies this year and, if he can continue to do that, I think he can establish himself in the san’yaku.

I think Hakunofuji will join his high-level Isegahama comrades in doing well at this tournament. I’ve been a big fan of him ever since he was Ochiai. He’s the only wrestler in the jōi that I’ve predicted a winning record for (not fighting Yoshinofuji and Atamifuji will help with that).

Takayasu and Wakamotoharu have low rankings, for them, at this tournament. They should be good enough to a winning record here.

I like what I saw from Wakanoshō in the last tournament. He really reminds me of his stable master Takakeishō.

Asakōryū will have a lot of motivation to get a winning record. Any losing record will put him in jūryō. I think that means we’ll see more than a few henka out of him this month.

8 wins

M5w Ōshōma
M6e Shōdai
M7e Kotoeihō
M9e Fujiryoga
M10e Asanoyama
M12e Asahakūryū
M12w Abi
M15e Ōnokatsu
M15w Kazuma
M16e Daiseizen

I have Ōshōma leading the bare-minimum brigade at this tournament. He’s not bad when he’s lurking just outside the jōi. He’s still pretty inconsistent, though. So I won’t be surprised if he actually ends up going 2-13 or something.

Shōdai still has some gas left in the tank and I think he can skirt by, despite being ranked somewhat high.

I think Kotoeihō and Fujiryoga will follow up their career highs with under-the-radar kachi-koshi. I think they have decent futures, but I don’t see them getting into a title race for the second tournament in a row.

I’m still choosing to see a lot of potential in Asahakūryū, despite how disappointing he was in the last tournaments. If his teammate Asanoyama is healthy, I think he’s good enough to get 8-7.

Abi’s gotta get a winning record at this rank, right?

Ōnokatsu only went down to jūryō because he was hurt. He looked in good shape in the second half of the May tournament. Kazuma and Daiseizan are our two rookies for the tournament. I think both has some upside, but I’m not expecting very big things from them right now.

7 wins

K1w Ōhō
M2e Gōnoyama
M2w Churanoumi
M6w Fujiseun
M8w Rōga
M11w Mitakeumi
M14w Kinbōzan

Ōhō’s record at komusubi has been abysmal. I think he’ll be the odd-man out in the san’yaku, with everyone else doing very well.

Gōnoyama and Churanoumi are two of the jōi wrestlers I expect to suffer for all the san’yaku’s successes. Fujiseun, Rōga, Mitakeumi and Kinbōzan have all been treading water this year. I think they’ll end up with one too many losses in Nagoya.

6 wins

M1w Takanoshō
M4e Daieisho
M9w Tobizaru
M13e Nishikifuji
M14w Shishi

Takanoshō and Daieishō fit into my strong san’yaku theory. With them being a little older, too, I think they might struggle.

Tobizaru had a big tournament in May. I think this will be a letdown basho for him. I think Nishikifuji and Shishi will struggle. Both are at their ceilings here and I can see them yo-yo-ing between makuuchi and jūryō over the next few tournaments.

5 wins

O1w Kotozakura
M1e Fujinokawa
M5e Ura
M10w Chiyoshōma

I keep sticking my neck out for Kotozakura, expecting a return to the form that saw him win his lone yushō in November 2024. It’s just not happening, though. I think his size/shape is effecting his ability to stay healthy. And his body language has been very poor this year. I think there’s a strong chance he loses his ōzeki ranking at this tournament.

Fujinokawa is another jōi boy I think will struggle. He hasn’t looked at home at this ranking, yet, and those san’yaku boys are starting to figure him out.

Ura and Chiyoshōma are both ranked a little too high for their comfort-level. I think, despite their creativity, they will find it hard to get wins in July.

4 wins

M4w Ichiyamamoto

I love me some Ichiyamamoto. But I think he’ll have the most trouble of all these jōi wrestlers. He’s been lucky (?) to keep a high ranking lately, despite losing records, and I think that means he’s in for a very tough time in July.

0 wins

S2e Wakatakakage

Wakatakakage won’t be at this tournament. Reports state that he had potentially life saving surgery a few weeks ago. Hopefully he gets healthy soon, regardless if he competes.

Jūryō

J4w Toshinofuji: 11-4
J8e Midorifuji: 10-5
J2e Tokihayate, J5e Kitanowaka, J5w Ōshōumi, J6e Shōnannoumi, J7w Meisei: 9-6
J1e Asasuiryū, J4 Tomokaze, J6e Kazekeno, J7e Tamawashi, J9e Shirokuma, J10e Hitoshi, J11w Enhō, J12w Kayo, J13e Arashifuji: 8-7
J1w Kyokukaiyū, J2w Sadanoumi, J8w Hatsuyama, J9w Nishinoryū, J10w Tamashoho, J12e Tōhakuryū: 7-8
J3e Ryūden, J3w Dewanoryū, J11e Kagayaki, J14e Tochitaikai, J14w Nishikigi: 6-9
J13w Hakuyozan: 0-0-15

Toshinofuji is my pick to win the second division title. I love his size and his yotsu skills. He lacked consistency in May. That was his debut tournament in jūryō. This time around, I think he’ll be able to put in a complete fifteen day performance. I think Asahifuji is going to win makushita this month. So that means I’m predicting a possible Isegahama sweep (if Atamifuji comes out on top in makuuchi) of the top three divisions.

And look, I have Midorifuji doing well, too. I think Tokihayate, Ōshōumi and Tamawashi will land on their feet. I like what I saw from Shōnannoumi and Kitanowaka last time out. There could be makuuchi returns in their futures. Meisei has been stuck down here for an uncomfortably long time. The former sekiwake has to show some improvement this month.

I think the jūryō field is pretty evenly matched, as a whole. I think there will be lots of 8-7 and 7-8 records. I’ve taken some coin flips on a few of those wrestlers. Sadly, I think Nishikigi might finish with one of the worst records. That Nagoya tournament in 2023, where he looked like a possible champ, feels like a distant memory now.

Well, there are my picks. What are yours?

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