2026 Natsu basho predictions!

Here's my projected win totals for every top division sumo wrestler competing in the top division at the May tournament.

May 08, 2026

Hi everyone,

We have new sumo this weekend and I can hardly wait.

Before things start rolling, I’m going to stick my neck out (as I always do) and attempt to predict the win-loss records of everyone in the makuuchi. It’s a difficult task and I’m usually woefully incorrect.

Even so… I persist.

Scroll down below to see what I think will happen over the coming weeks, including who I think will lift the cup.

Our bonus gif today is a guilty looking Hiradoumi fleeing the scene.

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14 wins

Y1e Hōshōryū

I think the path is being cleared for the 74th yokozuna to win his first yushō since January 2025. Hōshōryū has been very good all year, despite what the JSA chairman thinks. He’s been runner up in three of the past four tournaments and I just think he’s due for a championship.

On paper, things look easier than usual for him. Ōnosato is likely out, due to that persistent shoulder injury. And Aonishiki might be out, too, with reported toe and ankle problems. If either of those guys do show up they aren’t likely to be very competitive or make it through all fifteen days. That means Hōshōryū is either going to catch them in weakened states or not have to worry about them at all.

His biggest competition, in my opinion, are Kirishima and Kotozakura. He has mixed results against those two, but I think he might get the better of them here to claim the title in the final few days.

I’m being bold with this prediction with Hōshōryū getting a near zenshō-yushō. I think he’s going to look great through the opening five days or so and then cough up a weird loss in the middle of the tournament. After that wake-up call I see him excelling down the stretch and claiming the title with a big win over a rival.

For that weird loss… how about Ichiyamamoto? Maybe he gets him with the old push-me-pull-you.

13 wins

O2e Kirishima

I think we’re going to see a strong performance from our newest ōzeki. Like with Hōshōryū, I think the statuses of Ōnosato and Aonishiki are going to be a big help for Kirishima. I also think there’s a lot of very winnable match-ups in the jōi for both him and Hōshōryū. Guys like Takanoshō, Ichiyamamoto, Ōhō, Hiradoumi and Gonōyama could all end up with bad records in this tournament.

10 wins

O1e Kotozakura
M9e Abi
M15w Ōshōumi

Kotozakura looked great in March. And, like with the other two guys I mentioned, I think the questions over Ōnosato, Aonishiki along with a soft jōi are going to benefit Kotozakura. I don’t think we’re going to see Kotozakura kick on and put himself back in that yokozuna conversation, but I do think he’s a solid ōzeki and his grappling is just too good for a lot of the guys ranked in the spots just below him.

I think Abi might be our surprise yushō threat in this tournament. His poor showing in March was due to a back injury he suffered on the eve of the tournament. He was able to come back and compete at the tail end of the basho. So I suspect it wasn’t too bad an injury (in a sumo context, that is). If Abi is close to fighting shape then he should be too good for those ranked around him at M9.

I’m hoping Ōshōumi shows an improvement in this tournament. He looked terrible in March. That was a real surprise considering how good he looked in January, when he went 10-5 in his debut makuuchi basho. He might have been a little hurt in March. That plus his highest ever ranking might have been the reason for his 5-10 showing. If he’s feeling good, I think he has a lot of winnable matches in the maegashira basement.

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9 wins

M5e Wakamotoharu
M8w Asahakūryū
M11w Kinbōzan
M13w Tamawashi
M15e Tobizaru

Wakamotoharu went 3-12 in March. He was given a somewhat friendly demotion down to M5, though. Being outside the jōi means he’s going to avoid the san’yaku, ōzeki and yokozuna in the first week. That’s really going to help him put together a solid start to the tournament. There was quite a few guys over promoted to this part of the banzuke this month (Chiyoshōma, Fujiseun, Shōdai) and I think Wakamotoharu is going to do well against them.

I really like what I’m seeing from Asahakūryū. He was one of the best rikishi at the March tournament. He’s got a big promotion this time around, but I think he should be OK. He’s also going to fight some of the same characters Wakamotoharu is going to face.

Kinbōzan had a good March. Despite the promotion he’s still ranked pretty low, in the spaces where he historically does well.

Tamawashi and Tobizaru are both on the ropes a little here, Tobizaru more than the Iron Man. They both need good tournaments to avoid potential demotions here or in July. I think their grit and experience will see them through this month.

8 wins

O1w Aonishiki
S1e Atamifuji
M2e Yoshinofuji
M4e Daieishō
M6e Churanoumi
M10e Asanoyama
M10w Hakunofuji
M12w Tokihayate
M13e Kotoeihō
M14w Rōga
M16e Wakanosho

I think Aonishiki is going to try and stick out this tournament and save his ōzeki rank. And, even if he’s hobbled, I think he’s talented enough to scrap his way to the bare minimum amount of wins he needs. He was really exposed in the last tournament by opponents consistently forcing him to fight upright. He knows that’s coming now and I favour him to make the correct adjustments — since he’s so young, smart and physically gifted.

I’m picking Atamifuji to go under the radar and stick his landing in the sekiwake ranks. I don’t think he’s going to soar at this tournament. I think Hōshōryū, Kirishima and Kotozakura will do a good job of keeping him grounded and out of the title picture. But I think he can do well enough to keep this ranking and stay in this spot for some time.

I think Yoshinofuji is good enough to survive in the jōi, but I’m not sure if he’s ready to push on much further than where he’s at right now. Daieishō is also good enough for the jōi, but his san’yaku days might be behind him.

I’m expecting Churanoumi to bounce back from his awful jōi experience in March (at this much friendlier rank). Asanoyama has tremendous quality and should be good enough to get the kachi-koshi while in the middle of the division. Hakunofuji seems to have recovered, somewhat, from his foot injury and he should be too good for this rank.

Tokihayate has been solid at this ranking in the past. Kotoeihō is showing more promise lately. Rōga has to produce something to avoid being in relegation trouble this tournament or next. And I like what I’ve seen from Wakanosho and think he could survive his debut top division tournament.

7 wins

K1w Takayasu
M3e Hiradoumi
M3w Ōhō
M4w Gōnoyama
M7w Asakōryū
M9w Nishikifuji
M11e Ura
M17e Fujiryoga

I think Takayasu is going to be a victim of Hōshōryū, Kirishima and Kotozakura’s successes this month. And I think he’s going to drop a couple to the other savvy vets he has ranked around him. He’ll still whoop those young whippersnappers, though.

I could go either way on Hiradoumi and Ōhō, but I think a strong showing from the yokozuna and ōzeki classes is bad news for them. I think Gōnoyama will be lucky to get seven here. He’s really struggled at these climbs in the past.

I’m still not that impressed with Asakōryū’s sumo. I don’t think he hits hard enough to do well at this level of the division. Nishikifuji does well in the lower ranks, but always seems to come unstuck in this middle-ground. Ura, sadly, seems to be picking up speed on his decline right now. Fujiryoga was lucky to get spared a demotion for this tournament. I’m still yet to see any makuuchi qualities from him.

6 wins

K1w Wakatakakage
M1e Fujinokawa
M6w Fujiseun
M8e Ōshōma
M12e Shishi
M16w Ryūden

Wakatakakage got hurt on the tail end of the last tournament. That might have a lingering effect. I also think he’s going to find it tough against the youngsters who are started to fill out the ranks around him.

Fujinokawa got a kachi-koshi by the skin of his teeth in March. He was aided by an early start against Hōshōryū and a match with the severely hurt Ōnosato. I doubt he gets lucky like this again. He’s extremely fun to watch, but his lack of size will be a liability at this high a ranking.

Fujiseun did well in March, but I don’t think this ranking matches his ability. Ōshōma is terribly inconsistent and often struggles when he gets past M10. Shishi is still fun to watch, but he’s still also very limited as a wrestler. Ryūden is treading water at this late stage of his career and I think he’ll dip back down to the second division for July.

5 wins

S1w Kotoshōhō
M1w Takanoshō
M5w Shōdai
M7e Chiyoshōma

I don’t think Kotoshōhō will follow up his impressive runner-up finish from March. I think he’s going to get beat-up by the other upper-rankers (though, he won’t have to face Kotozakura). We’ve seen this before with him. He’s had some amazing tournaments and then always followed them up with terrible records.

Takanoshō, Shōdai and Chiyoshōma are all on the wrong side of thirty and at ranks where they’ve typically struggled, as of late.

4 wins

M2w Ichiyamamoto

I love Ichiyamamoto. But we’ve seen, a few times now, that’s just not cut out for life this high up in the division. I think he might end up being a bit of a whipping boy in the first week of the tournament.

0 wins

Y1e Ōnosato

I’m hoping Ōnosato doesn’t suit up for this one. He needs rest and possibly surgery. That’s the only way he’s going to get back on track to break records (maybe all the records) in this sport.

Well, there’s my picks for all to see (and laugh at in two weeks). Are you feeling plucky? Tell me who you think will win this tournament in the comments!

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