2026 Natsu basho predictions results: Sorry Wakatakakage!
I tried to predict the win-loss record for every top division rikishi.
Hi everyone!
I’m still in that post basho glow period right now. And the despair of having to wait two months for more sumo action is yet to set in. However, this stretch from May to July is never too bad (since it’s so lovely outside).
In today’s post I’m going through the predictions I made before the 2026 natsu basho and then just roasting myself for how much I got wrong. It’s good, though, it keeps me humble.
Scroll down to see just how far off I was this month (and see the few things I did get right).
Our bonus gif today is the winner I did not see coming.
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Below is the May banzuke with the win-loss records for everyone in the top division. On the outside columns are my predictions, which largely sucked.
The font for the predictions is either green or red. Green means I was right about whether a wrestler would get a winning or losing record. Red means I was wrong.
I went 22-20 on picking kashi-koshi (winning records) and make-koshi (losing records). That’s actually an improvement on the last time I did this, where I went 18-24 (an all-time low for me). I think my best mark is 24-18.
The shading behind the records shows how close I was on the number of wins for each wrestler. A green backing means I got the prediction exactly right. Yellow means I was off by a single win. Orange means was off by two wins. And red means I was off by three or more wins.
I have six greens here (including the obvious 0-0-15 with Ōnosato). That’s down from seven at the last tournament (which included an obvious 0-0-15 for Midorifuji).
I have eighteen red spaces. That’s just two fewer than at the last tournament (which was my worst ever mark).
With my ego now in shatters, let’s dissect some specific rights and wrongs.
Right on Kirishima and very wrong on Wakatakakage
I picked Hōshōryū to win this tournament and Kirishima to be a close second. Here’s what I wrote about Kirishima, who was going for back-to-back yushō.
I think we’re going to see a strong performance from our newest ōzeki. Like with Hōshōryū, I think the statuses of Ōnosato and Aonishiki are going to be a big help for Kirishima. I also think there’s a lot of very winnable match-ups in the jōi for both him and Hōshōryū. Guys like Takanoshō, Ichiyamamoto, Ōhō, Hiradoumi and Gonōyama could all end up with bad records in this tournament.
So, not bad. Kirishima did seem to benefit from the absences of Ōnosato, Aonishiki and Hōshōryū (who tore his hamstring in his opening day bout). And I was mostly right on there being a soft joi for this tournament. Fujinokawa, Takanoshō, Ichiyamamoto, Hiradoumi and Daieishō all finished with losing records. Though, Gōnoyama and Ōhō did better than I was expecting.
When it comes to Wakatakakage, I had him down for a losing record. I overreacted to the elbow injury he sustained at the end of the last basho. Here’s what I said about him.
Wakatakakage got hurt on the tail end of the last tournament. That might have a lingering effect. I also think he’s going to find it tough against the youngsters who are starting to fill out the ranks around him.
I was delighted to be wrong here. Wakatakakage’s performance and yushō were a joy to watch. And he smoked a lot of those youngsters I thought he’d struggle against (he got wins over Yoshinofuji, Fujinokawa, Ōhō, Atamifuji and Gōnoyama).
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Apologies to Kotoshoho
This tournament saw both Kotoshōhō and Atamifuji debut at the sekiwake rank. I correctly picked that Atamifuji would be competitive at his highest ever rank.
I’m picking Atamifuji to go under the radar and stick his landing in the sekiwake ranks. I don’t think he’s going to soar at this tournament. I think Hōshōryū, Kirishima and Kotozakura will do a good job of keeping him grounded and out of the title picture. But I think he can do well enough to keep this ranking and stay in this spot for some time.
Atamifuji didn’t end up fighting any of those guys I mentioned. Instead it was an early rocky start that kept him boxed out of the title run.
I had Kotoshōhō going 5-10, though. And that was way off. Here’s what I said about him.
I don’t think Kotoshōhō will follow up his impressive runner-up finish from March. I think he’s going to get beat-up by the other upper-rankers (though, he won’t have to face Kotozakura). We’ve seen this before with him. He’s had some amazing tournaments and then always follows them up with terrible records.
Kotoshōhō bucked the trend in this tournament, though. This is his third tournament getting nine or more wins in a row. That’s a career first for him.
Shout out to Alan, who knew what was up. Here’s what he put in the comments for that original predictions post.
Five wins for Kotoshōhō? Wow Tim, you really do have it out for him. I think he will surprise us with a kachi-koshi and remain at Sekiwake. I may be thinking with my heart instead of my head but that's my prediction. He's been up and down the ranks in the past but I think he's maturing and now knows when to reign in his "all violence" team nature.
Alan, if you’re reading this, what’s your prediction for Kotoshōhō in Nagoya? Will he repeat his yushō there from a year ago?
Got way too high on Ōshōumi and Asahakūryū
I really thought I saw something in both of these wrestlers. I might end up being right about that in the long-term, since they are both relatively young and have only gotten two or three top division tournaments under their belts.
They both looked out of their depth in May, though. That makes sense for Asahakūryū, who was competing at M8 after being M17 and M16 for his first two tournaments.
I really expected more from Ōshōumi at the M15 rank, though. He managed a very impressive 10-5 from M16 in January and looked like he had very solid potential. But he’s gone 5-10 and 4-11 since then and will be demoted to jūryō for July.
I overlooked Kotoeihō and Fujiryoga
I can’t be too mad about this. I don’t think anyone had a serious belief that these two would take advantage of the high profile absences and fight themselves into a title run that lasted up until the final day.
I did predict Kotoeihō to finish with a winning record, though, stating “Kotoeihō is showing more promise lately.”
I had Fujiryoga going 7-8. I said, “Fujiryoga was lucky to get spared a demotion for this tournament. I’m still yet to see any makuuchi qualities from him.”
I was wrong there, but… and I don’t mean to sound harsh… I’m still not totally sold on Fujiryoga. I think there’s a chance this one was a bit of a fluke. He and Kotoeihō will have a chance to prove how good they are in Nagoya. They should get very healthy demotions up the banzuke for that (and I’m actually not half-bad at predicting those things).
