Podcast Recapping the 2026 Hatsu basho + my predictions results
I tried to predict the win-loss record for every top division rikishi.
Hey everyone,
I hope you’re still on a high from that fantastic tournament we all witnessed this month. Earlier this week I got to talk about it with my friend Stephie Haynes over on The Level Change Podcast.
You can check that out here:
You can follow Stephie on Substack here (link). That way you won’t miss an episode of The Level Change or Hey Not The Face!
In addition to sharing this podcast appearance, I’m also sharing the results of my win-loss predictions. It’s not pretty. Scroll down to see how I did.
Bonus gif today features the Blue Whirlwind (with an over-joyed Wakamotoharu making a cameo).
Here’s how I did.
The predictions on the outermost columns are either green or red. Green means I was right about whether a wrestler would get a winning or losing record. Red means I was wrong. I went 24-18, marginally worse than the 27-15 I got after the 2025 Kyushu basho.
The shading behind the records is also significant. A green backing means I was exactly right with my prediction. Yellow means I was one win off. Orange means I was two wins off. And red means I was three or more wins off.
I had just 18 predictions in the green and yellow, which is less than I got in Kyushu (22). I only got 10 records exactly right and I was way wrong on a whopping 15 records! So, not great… Yet, fun was still had.
Here’s a few interesting spots where I was right/wrong about the tournament.
I got Aonishiki’s win total right!
Aonishiki was one of the few wrestlers whose record I guessed correct. Big whoop, though, Aonishiki has only ever scored records of 11-4 and 12-3 in his top division career.
I was correct to suggest that the yokozuna would not be competing for the title at this tournament. I felt this way because of the injuries they were carrying into the basho. However, I predicted they would both bow out the tournament in the first week. Them hanging around ended up spoiling a lot of my predictions.
I did say that I thought the ōzeki would be able to capitalize on the injured or missing yokozuna. And I was halfway right there, with Aonishiki rising past them to take his second championship.
Despite picking Aonishiki to get a 12-3 record, he was not my actual pick for the yushō.
Kotozakura, what was I thinking?
Yep, I thought Kotozakura would pull off a surprise yusho at a poetic moment (a year on from the tournament where a win would have given him a yokozuna promotion). I was big wrong, though.
Here’s what I was thinking before the tournament:
If he’s healed up, and if the yokozuna are out (I know, big ifs), then I think Kotozakura is capable of making a serious title challenge. And, again if he’s healthy, I think he can handle Aonishiki (in spite of the impressive wins the Ukrainian has over him).
Kotozakura showed flashes of his old self during the tournament. However, most the time, he looked like the banged up version of himself we saw throughout 2025. He was also unable to get a win over Aonishiki. Aonishiki beat him on the final day to set-up his play-off with Atamifuji.
I didn’t jinx Kirishima
I had Kirishima going 10-5 and he went one better to go 11-4. Here’s me being hopeful about the former ōzeki heading into this one.
I just can’t quit Kirishima! He looked fantastic in November and if the yokozuna are out, he’s another guy who could benefit (especially since he can’t seem to find a way past Ōnosato). I think there’s going to be a spot opening up at ōzeki very soon and that Kirishima might be able to, quietly, start putting together a case to fill it. That might start here in January.
Kirishima was able to get his ōzeki run off the ground this month. He was able to beat Hōshōryū in this tournament and he fought one of his closest bouts with Ōnosato, albeit in a loss. He also managed a win over Aonishiki.
It’s early, but I’m feeling bold about the Misty Island and I think he can get 10 wins in March, too!
Other Hits
There aren’t too many of these, but I was right about Takayasu doing just enough to hold onto his rank. Here’s what I said about that pre-tournament:
Takayasu seems to be hitting a groove as of late. I think he’s going to hold his sekiwake rank this month. I also think he will do well against the young kids in the jōi.
Takayasu’s record against the jōi was 5-1 in January.
I was also right about Ura!
