2025 Aki basho predictions results: I did not do well.

I tried to predict the win-loss record for every top division rikishi.

The 2025 aki basho has come and gone and we have our latest top division champion. Ōnosato finished top of the pile after his epic showdown with fellow yokozuna Hōshōryū. I love writing that.

After a week of competition it seemed like we were destined for that last day duel between those two guys. And that was a welcome change from the past year, which has seen Hōshōryū struggle under the weight of his rope.

The yokozuna showdown seemed predictable after a few days of bouts. A lot of what went on during the basho was very surprising, though, to me anyway.

Before the tournament I tried to predict how many wins each top division wrestler would get. You can find that here (link). Now it’s time to see how I did. Spoiler alert: I did awful!

Scroll down past the bonus gif for my results and some insight into what surprised me this month.

Also, this is your last chance to be entered into the prize draw for a Cheeky Sumo sweatshirt. Monthly paid subscribers will get one entry into that draw. Annual subscribers will get six entries and founding subscribers will get fifteen entries (I need better names for those tiers, don’t I?).

Bonus gif today is our tournament champ Ōnosato (who I did predict would win).

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Here’s how I did. The table below shows the records for everyone in makuuchi, along with my pre-basho predictions. It’s not a very pretty sight.

The colour coding is as follows: green means I was exactly right, yellow means I was one win away, orange means two wins away and red means I was wrong by more than two wins. If the prediction is written in white, then it means I guessed right on whether that wrestler would have a winning or losing record.

When it comes to picking winners and losers, I went 17-23. Which isn’t great, but not that terrible.

I only made two correct predictions (Hitoshi and Rōga). That’s pretty terrible.

I was one or two wins away on thirteen wrestlers’ records and I was three or more away on sixteen. So, all in all, not a very accurate tournament for me.

I’ll dig into some of my good and poor predictions below with my 20-20 hindsight glasses on.

The Yokozuna showdown I didn’t see coming

My pre-tournament pick for winner was Ōnosato. So I was right about that. I didn’t foresee Hōshōryū doing this well, though.

Here’s what I said about Ōnosato, who I thought would win twelve bouts, before the tournament.

After coming off an underwhelming debut yokozuna tournament, I think Ōnosato will be back to his best here and he’ll be the one who manages to survive the most scares against this very competitive san’yaku and jōi.

Not a bad prediction. Though, I was a little off in my belief that the san’yaku and jōi would be especially strong this tournament. The san’yaku really under-delivered and the jōi was extremely inconsistent.

Here’s my pre-tournament take on Hōshōryū’s chances (I picked him to go 10-5):

I’m really hoping I’m right with this Hōshōryū prediction. Getting a full tournament under his belt with double-digit wins would be great for him right now. If this happens, it likely means he coughs up more kinboshi, but I’m hoping this can be a nice platform for him to build upon as he eyes November and next year as places he can deliver his best yokozuna sumō.

We are lucky that we got to see some of Hōshōryū’s best yokozuna sumō in this past tournament. And I think, as I hoped, this will give him a lot to build from as he tries to best represent the rank. I’m hoping this September performance is a sign of things to come and I also hope that we see him get one over Ōnosato sooner rather than later. That would help keep this rivalry exciting.

Wakatakakage and Aonishiki: Sliding Doors

I thought Wakatakakage would get his eleven wins and his ōzeki promotion in September. It felt like that was the best ending to his story of injury and recovery. However, sport (as with life) isn’t bound to happy endings.

Here is what I said about Wakatakakage before the tournament.

I think he has the maturity and experience to seize this opportunity, instead of being swallowed up by the pressure it brings with it.

I don’t think pressure got to him during this tournament until he had lost three or four bouts. I think he may have been fighting through injury early on, though. Sadly, those things ended up intersecting and resulted in a record that not only doesn’t get him a promotion, but likely sees him bounced all the way out of the san’yaku.

When it comes to Aonishiki my prediction was somewhat close.