2026 Haru basho predictions!

Here's my projected win totals for every top division sumo wrestler competing in the top division at the March tournament.

The haru basho starts tonight/this morning!

I have high hopes for this being a very entertaining tournament, especially with Aonishiki on track to claim a yokozuna promotion.

Here’s a quick post before I get back into the grove of daily tournament updates. It’s also a freebie.

In this post I’m going to predict the win totals for every wrestler in the makuuchi. Historically, I’ve done terribly at this. But that’s not going to stop me trying again.

Check out what I think will happen over the next fifteen days below. Hit me with your predictions in the comments, too!

Bonus gif today is a bird’s eye view of Takayasu’s kachiage (forearm smash).

I see your hairy shoulder and I raise you a whole back!

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13 wins

• Y1w Ōnosato

Ōnosato is my pick for the yushō in March. He’s not one hundred percent, but he wasn’t in the last tournament either. Despite being banged up he still went 10-5. I think if his health has improved since then, he should be healthy enough to improve upon that result.

I think this tournament will be a race between Ōnosato and Aonishiki for the cup. Ōnosato is a stylistic match-up nightmare for the Blue Whirlwind and I think that will result in Ōnosato staying undefeated against him and scoring the big win on the penultimate day to secure the yushō.

After securing the yushō, I think Ōnosato then loses his final day match to Hōshōryū. I think he’ll take a loss to Yoshinofuji at around the midway point of the tournament, too.

12 wins

• O1e Aonishiki

As I said above, I think Aonishiki will be neck-and-neck with Ōnosato for most of the tournament and that they will meet with the tournament on the line. Aonishiki’s record against Ōnosato makes me believe he will fall at the last hurdle, when it comes to his chances of claiming his third title in a row.

This runner-up finish, in my scenario, would still likely trigger his promotion to yokozuna, though.

I think he’ll get his win over Hōshōryū in this tournament, but take losses to Kirishima (who beat him in the last tournament) and a big pusher thruster (like Daieishō or Takayasu) before that.

11 wins

• S1e Kirishima

My heart is overriding my head, slightly, with this one. I’m predicting Kirishima gets his third 11-4 finish in a row and that gets him a promotion back to ōzeki. I started writing Sumo Stomp! in 2023, when Kirishima rose to prominence off and claimed his initial promotion to ōzeki. Injuries took that promotion from him a year later. I’d love to see him reclaim that rank and it would be a perfect time to do so, with Aonishiki likely rising up one more rank and thus leaving a space free at ōzeki.

I think a win over Aonishiki will score him that all important eleventh win. I think he’ll get one over his frenemy Hōshōryū, too.

10 wins

• Y1e Hōshōryū

• M9w Tamawashi

• M12w Asanoyama

• M17e Fujiryoga

I think Hōshōryū will be good in this tournament, but just slightly off the pace. I can see him taking an early loss to a high maegashira ranked wrestler (as he often does), perhaps Yoshinofuji. I think he loses to Atamifuji, too (he has bad records against him) and drops one to someone totally surprising like a Fujinokawa or Churanoumi. Those three losses plus losses to Kirishima and Aonishiki will keep him out the yushō title hunt.

I’m picking Tamawashi to have a good tournament, since he’s pretty low in the rankings — by his standards. There’s a lot of smaller guys around him that I think he can bully off the ring with his nodowa (throat thrust), guys like Gonoyama, Tokihayate, Rōga and Asakōryū.

I think Asanoyama is also under-ranked here and that his size and grappling will be too much for the older/slower and younger and less experienced opponents he has ranked around him.

I’m picking Fujiryoga to come out the gates very hot in his makuuchi debut. He’s a new riddle to solve for a lot of the wrestlers in the top division. His size and speed might surprise them. I don’t think he’s a big name for the future, I just think he’ll have a nice debut (like Kinbōzan when he debuted with an 11-4 record).

9 wins

• K1e Atamifuji

• M1w Yoshinofuji

• M4e Daieishō

• M5e Abi

• M7w Hakunofuji

• M11w Ōshōumi

• M16w Kinbōzan

I think Atamifuji will handle the pressure of his first san’yaku appearance well. I don’t think he’s going to follow up his jun-yushō with another title run, though. I think he does well against Hōshōryū, but I think that might be the only win he gets off the special names ranks. I think he’ll beat enough people below the san’yaku to have a winning record.

I like Yoshinofuji’s chances of progressing to the san’yaku in this tournament. I think the jōi is a little weak this time around and he should do well in those match-ups. He also does a good job of showing up against the big names who are ranked above him.

I think Daieishō and Abi’s experience and size profiles will help them do well in this tournament. Abi might also avoid get to avoid most of the elite wrestlers.

I’m not sure how healthy Hakunofuji is in this tournament. He should be good enough to win at this ranking, though. I’m really high on Ōshōumi, so I think he will do well at his highest ever ranking. And, as far as Kinbōzan, goes, I think we’ll get a big performance out of him with his makuuchi spot on the line.

8 wins

• M1e Wakatakakage

• M3e Hiradoumi

• M7e Ōshōma

• M8e Ura

• M9e Tokihayate

• M12e Asakōryū

• M13e Tobizaru

• M14e Chiyoshōma

• M14w Nishikifuji

• M16e AsahakūryūŌhō

Wakatakakage did well in January, but I think he might just scrape by here, given how how well I’ve projected a lot of the wrestlers above him to do. The rest of the names on this list are guys who I think will do OK, given how they historically do when ranked at this level. Hiradoumi is my biggest risk here. He’s been hit and miss at his high a ranking, but I think there’s a lot of winnable matches for him in the jōi.

7 wins

• O1w Kotozakura

• S1w Takayasu

• K1e Wakamotoharu

• M3w Ōhō

• M5w Kotoshōhō

• M6e Ichiyamamoto

• M10e Gōnoyama

• M10w Rōga

• M15w Mitakeumi

I’m projecting Kotozakura and Takayasu to get their first losing records in a while. I think they are Wakamotoharu will suffer from the yokozuna, Aonishiki, Kirishima and Atamifuji doing so well. I don’t think this will result in terrible records, though.

6 wins

• M2e Fujinokawa

• M2w Churanoumi

• M6w Ōnokatsu

• M8w Shōdai

• M11e Shishi

• M13w Fujiseun

I really want Fujinokawa to do well at such a high ranking, but — realistically — I think he’s probably going to lose against everyone in the elite rankings. He might surprise one person, but I struggle to see him having repeated success against the names up here. His ferocity is incredible, but against these guys, I don’t think that will make up for his lack of size.

I also think Churanoumi will struggle at his highest ranking to date, too. I’m a big fan of his, but this is a big step up in competition for him and at 32, he’s already past his prime.

5 wins

• M4w Takanoshō

• M17w Kotoeihō

Takanoshō got demoted just 1.5 ranks off his 5-10 record in January. He’s probably more upset about that than anyone. He might have been hoping to go down to something like M7, where he usually crushed the first week of competition. In the jōi, though, I think he’s going to take a lot of losses in week one against elite opponents.

I also think Kotoeihō is going to struggle. I’ve not seen enough from him to suggest he’s cut out for makuuchi. He has really high hips and, in his first run at makuuchi, opponents found it way too easy to push and tilt him off balance.

0 wins

• M15e Midorifuji

Midorifuji is absent to start the tournament, due to a heart condition. That’s scary. I hope he’s able to treat and/or manage that, regardless of whether that means he competes again.

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OK, that's what I’m thinking. Where are you all at? Tell me in the comments who you think will take the yushō this month.

See ya tomorrow, with the first update from the 2026 haru basho.

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