2026 Hatsu basho predictions!
Here's my projected win totals for every top division sumo wrestler competing in the top division at the January tournament.
The first Grand Sumo tournament of the year is happening right now. But before the big boys in the makuuchi go at it, I have time (just) to sneak in my prediction post for the tournament.
Below you will see my forecast for how many wins every single wrestler in the top division will have at the hatsu basho.
Enjoy!
Bonus gif today is one man who I think will get less than ten wins this month!
12 wins
O1e Kotozakura
O1w Aonishiki
Spoiler alert, but I think our yokozuna will be irrelevant in this tournament. I don’t like what I’ve been seeing from Ōnosato and Hōshōryū on tour and in the all stable practises. Both are clearly hurt. The shoulder injury that Ōnosato suffered during the Kyushu basho appears to still be affecting him. And Hōshōryū is nursing a knee injury. I think they will both pull out of this tournament in the first week. That will leave a big power vacuum in the division.
I think the ōzeki will capitalize on this.
Aonishiki has history in his sights as he vies to become the first ever European-born yokozuna. I think he’ll be awarded that promotion if he wins here (even if his maiden yushō was at the sekiwake rank). His career has been undeniable thus far and I think the JSA would strike while the iron was hot and give us all three young yokozuna who can battle it out for the next decade.
There’s a lot of pressure on Aonishiki to perform well in this tournament. I don’t think that’s going to be an issue, though. The only time I’ve ever seen him flustered was when he fought Kotoshōhō with the 2025 Nagoya basho on the line. He was second best on that night, but since then he’s looked totally unflappable, especially during his must win bouts with Kotozakura and Hōshōryū in Kyushu. I think he’ll be his usual superb self at this tournament, chopping guys down with his uchimuso. However, I think he’s going to just miss out on the cup.
That’s right, my bold prediction for January is that Kotozakura is going to lift his second career top division title. Last year Kotozakura came into the New Year tournament knowing a win or runner-up spot would make him a yokozuna. That didn’t happen, though. A knee injury cut him down when he was at the precipice of his life’s ultimate goal. The injury, and the lack of rest and healing time he gave it, meant he hobbled through the entire year without posing any kind of threat for a yushō.
He’s slowly improved over that time, though. And I am wishfully thinking that he’s coming into this year healthy enough to show us some of that magical form he showed in 2024.
If he’s healed up, and if the yokozuna are out (I know, big ifs), then I think Kotozakura is capable of making a serious title challenge. And, again if he’s healthy, I think he can handle Aonishiki (in spite of the impressive wins the Ukrainian has over him).
What do you think? Have I lost my mind? Or are you also a believer in Double-Stacks?
11 wins
M1w Yoshinofuji
I’ve been very impressed with Yoshinofuji in his first three makuuchi tournaments. He has all the physical gifts you’d want a top rikishi to have and he seems to have a very strong mental game. He was the only Kyushu born wrestler who wasn’t fazed by the rabid support those guys got in the November tournament. He’s also not fazed about going up against the big names. He’s 3-0 against Aonishiki and 1-0 against Ōnosato.
The M1 rank is a tough place to be, but given how ahead of schedule Yoshinofuji seems to be, developmentally, and how mature he seems, mentally, I don’t think this will be a case of too much, too soon for the youngster. I also think he’ll benefit from having two teammates with him in the jōi (Hakunofuji and Atamifuji). He’s not going to have to fight them. Instead he’ll get two bouts with wrestlers lower down the rankings. And he and those other two will be fighting the same people, probably on back-to-back days, so they will be able to share plenty of information with each other.
I think Yoshinofuji will ultimately fall short of the yushō, but I think he’s going to have a big say in who lifts the first cup of the year.
10 wins
S1e Kirishima
I just can’t quit Kirishima! He looked fantastic in November and if the yokozuna are out, he’s another guy who could benefit (especially since he can’t seem to find a way past Ōnosato). I think there’s going to be a spot opening up at ōzeki very soon and that Kirishima might be able to, quietly, start putting together a case to fill it. That might start here in January.
9 wins
K1e Ōhō
K1w Wakamotoharu
M4e Daieishō
M8e Hiradoumi
M9e Gōnoyama
M15w Asakōryū
M16e Asanoyama
I feel like Ōhō is going to eventually find his footing in the san’yaku. He came close to getting a kachi-koshi while a sekwiake in Kyushu and I think he can keep his komusubi rank here. He’s too big and too talented to keep being bounced from these upper ranks. And, again if the yokozuna are out, he’s also going to have two easier bouts on his schedule.
Daieishō, Hiradoumi, Gōnoyama and Asakōryū all feel too good for where they are ranked right now. Daieishō is still a san’yaku level wrestler and I expect him to be back there sooner rather than later.
Asanoyama is returning to makuuchi after his latest comeback trail through the lower ranks. He looked very good in jūryō in November. Even on a recently repaired knee, the former ōzeki is still much better than most other wrestlers ranked around the maegashira basement.
8 wins
S1w Takayasu
M3w Hakunofuji
M4w Atamifuji
M5e Tamawashi
M9w Rōga
M10e Tokihayate
M12e Midorifuji
M12w Abi
M13e Tobizaru
Takayasu seems to be hitting a groove as of late. I think he’s going to hold his sekiwake rank this month. I also think he will do well against the young kids in the jōi.
Hakunofuji and Atamifuji have some of the same advantages that I believe Yoshinofuji has this tournament. I think that will give them the edge needed to eek out kachi-koshi.
I also think the veterans Midorifuji, Abi and Tobizaru will get 8-7 records. They are all in spots where they should be good enough to beat either the less experienced or much more shop worn wrestlers who are around them at those rankings.
Tokihayate is at his highest career rank for this tournament. I rate him really high and I think he’s someone who is on the verge of a breakout moment in his career.
7 wins
M2w Wakatakakage
M5w Churanoumi
M8w Ōnokatsu
M8w Kinbōzan
M11e Chiyoshoma
M16w Oshoumi
I think the vibes are still off around Wakatakakage. I’d love it if he took the changing of the year as an opportunity for a fresh start, but I just don’t think he has it in him for another charge at the upper ranks. And I think the younger talent in the jōi, and the ranks above that, will give him a rough time this month.
6 wins
M2e Ura
M3e Takanoshō
M7e Ōshōma
M10w Kotoshōhō
M17w Hatsuyama
I think Ura and Takanoshō will, like Wakatakakage, struggle with the strength of schedule while being ranked in the jōi. They are fighting both young up-and-comers and Father Time and I think that’s just too much.
5 wins
M7w Fujinokawa
M8e Shōdai
M11w Nishikifuji
M14w Mitakeumi
M15e Ryuden
M17w Asahakūryū
I’m hoping for a reverse jinx on Fujinokawa (worked on Ura last time!). He’s competing at his highest ever rank here. I would love to see him pull off a big surprise, since he’s one of the most fun fighters in the sport right now, but I’m skeptical of how his small man game will work this high on the banzuke.
4 wins
M1e Ichiyamamoto
M13w Tomokaze
M14e Shishi
Ichiyamamoto is another wrestler fighting at his highest ever rank in this tournament. I’m a big fan of him and I really appreciate the dimensions he’s added to his game lately. But I just don’t see him being able to hold his own up here. He’s really worked on his yotsu-zumō (belt grappling), but these upper ranks have a lot of yotsu specialists who should be too good for him.
3 wins
Y1e Hōshōryū
I think Ōnosato will be the first one to pull out of this tournament and, once that’s done, Hōshōryū will follow.
2 wins
Y1w Ōnosato
If Ōnosato and Hōshōryū are really hurt, I hope they both pull out this soon. That will give us the best chance of seeing them at their best throughout this year. The last thing we need is to have them fight through injuries and end up with years like Kotozakura did.
They are both special wrestlers and are probably capable of winning a lot while not being close to one-hundred percent healthy. Still, I don’t want to see that.
Rest up kings and wait for Osaka, please.
OK, that’s where my head is at. Tell me what you think!
Tim
Wakamotoharu?
You're predicting that none of the new juryo promotions end up getting kachi-koshi? These seem like fairly harsh predictions for guys like Asahakuryu and Hatsuyama.