2026 Natsu Banzuke prediction results: Not bad, I nailed Churanoumi!
The rankings for May are out, let's see how close they were to my predictions.
Hello all!
The banzuke for May came out over the weekend. That means we are just two weeks away from new Grand Sumo action. I can’t wait.
Before these rankings came out, I did my best to try and predict how the Japan Sumo Association would sort things out. This post recaps my banzuke prediction and examines where I got things right and where I got things wrong.
I did a pretty good job this time around.
Your bonus gif today is this sneer from the big dog.
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Before we get into the nitty gritty, here’s the entire actual banzuke, with some extra columns for past records, net wins and rank changes.
The green highlights here represent when I was exactly right with a prediction. A yellow highlight means I was half a rank off. Orange means I was off by exactly one rank and red means I was off by more than that.
I got 20 predictions exactly right. That’s a record for me. I was half a rank or a single rank off on 15 wrestlers. And I was way wrong on just seven wrestlers this time around. I’ve had seven red spaces three times in a row now!
Here is my full banzuke prediction:
And here’s my methodology behind making that banzuke:
Now, let’s get into some specifics.
Yokozuna, Ōzeki and san’yaku
The only thing I got wrong here was Kirishima’s position. I thought they were going to open up a spot on the west side for the new ōzeki (like they did recently when Wakatakakage became the third sekiwake on the banzuke). I don’t quite understand the rules for when a newly promoted upper ranker gets the east spot or the west spot. I think it has something to do with balance and the literal artistic construction of the banzuke document.
I was right that Kotoshōhō would get this massive promotion to sekiwake, bypassing Wakatakakage.
The jōi
I was near perfect on the jōi. The only thing I got wrong was that I had Shōdai getting over promoted four spots to M4w (on an 8-7 record) and Gōnoyama being just below him at M5e and with Wakamotoharu across from him at M5w.
In the real banzuke Shōdai did get over promoted, but by one less rank than I was expecting. That means he fell just short of the jōi and it was Gōnoyama who was given that last spot (going up 6.5 ranks on five net wins).
Jūryō exchanges
My biggest misses were at the bottom of the banzuke this time around…
